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The Specter of Stagflation Still Looms (Szn 6, Epsd 8)

Published May 13, 2024

With Ayesha Tariq, Macro Visor

Ayesha Tariq, founder of Macro Visor, rejoins the podcast to discuss her views on the economy, markets, and where investors should look for opportunities.

  • The macro set-up and why people are talking about stagflation (1:56);
  • The K-shaped economy and the damage being done (3:31);
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell claims there’s no stag and no flation. Is he wrong? (It wouldn’t be the first time) (8:50);
  • Faced with this backdrop, what does one do as an investor? (13:03);
  • China: There are still reasons to worry, even though the bleeding from the property market has abated a bit… (15:58);
  • India: long term growth story. Also copper, oil, and Japan (17:11);
  • The guest’s favorite areas for opportunity right now: UK and India (21:07);
  • A long-term concern is the fiscal situation in the US (22:00).

For more about the guest, visit her firm’s website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X. 

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Trend-Following Strategies for the New World Order (Szn 6, Epsd 7)Podcast episode cover art

Trend-Following Strategies for the New World Order (Szn 6, Epsd 7)

Published April 24, 2024

With Dr. Doug Greenig, Florin Court Capital

Dr. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital joins the podcast to discuss his worldview — one where the US is no longer the sole superpower — the situation in the Middle East, US fiscal concerns, artificial intelligence, and trends in commodities.

And of course how this all impacts his trading strategy.

Content Highlights

  • The world has undergone many changes with the US emerging as its lone superpower. That era is over (2:09);
  • China is a legitimate competitor to the US. It’s just having a bad moment due to the property market. But China is not going anywhere as an economic or military power (6:07);
  • The guest’s trend-following model trades 500 assets and seeks to capture medium-term changes. What he looks for to enter and exit trades (16:52);
  • One trend is lower electricity prices in Europe (19:19);
  • Populism and the latter stage of democratic government make for a potentially bearish outlook for US stocks (27:15);
  • Background on the guest (41:04);
  • Iran is still a force in the Middle East and beyond. Discussion of the weekend drone attack on Israel, which may have been an attempt at making a point (48:40);
  • As Russia’s economy illustrates, sanctions are hard to enforce. There may be inherent bias in many pro-Western analysis… (53:03);
  • US fiscal problems are real. The guest says it has “something like five years” before this takes a serious toll. Artificial intelligence may postpone this however (55:45);
  • Hypersonic missiles: One area where Russia and China have an edge over the US (57:45).

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The Trend is Your Friend. Right Now It’s Positive (Szn 6, Epsd 6)Podcast episode cover art feat Enrique Abeyta

The Trend is Your Friend. Right Now It’s Positive (Szn 6, Epsd 6)

Published April 5, 2024

With Enrique Abeyta, HX Research

Enrique Abeyta of HX Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his (constructive) views on the stock market, why commercial real estate concerns are overdone, and to provide one stock pick — and it’s not Nvidia, though he does discuss that at some length.

Some mature language is used at a few points. Sensitive listeners should be advised. 

The guest’s microphone setup is significantly better than the host’s so don’t get discouraged by the host sounding like he’s hiding in a cave at the open.

Content Highlights

  • Trends are underrated. Many investors don’t respect them or understand what they mean. The current trend is clearly long-term bullish for stocks (2:21);
  • However over the short term there could (probably will) be a pull back — as appears to be happening the week after recording (5:24);
  • On the whole, however, the outlook is very constructive. So constructive that the guest has only seen this clarity 10 times or less in his 30-year career (12:30);
  • When it comes to the Federal Reserve, there is a strong possibility interest rate policy stays roughly the same… (15:36);
  • Contrarian take: there’s no need to worry about commercial real estate: (19:00);
  • Regional banks presented an opportunity a year ago. New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is not an opportunity now (23:54);
  • Views on Nvidia (NVDA): not super constructive (28:20);
  • One long term idea: Independent power producer Talen Energy (TLNE), owner of a nuclear power plant. The company recently emerged from bankruptcy (34:51).

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