Tag: Scott Colbert

Season 2, Episode 33: Watch for ‘Blue Wave,’ Followed by Rotation Into Value Stocks

Published November 1, 2020

With Scott Colbert, chief economist, Commerce Trust Company

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss the state of the economy on the eve of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

In Colbert’s view, the economic recovery is “square root” shaped, with a quick bounce from the bottom followed by “the lazy L that comes after the easy V-part.” Politically, he anticipates a Biden victory and return of the Senate to democratic control. This will eventually lead to a higher tax rate for corporations, which together with a coronavirus vaccine will cause a rotation into value stocks.

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Season 1, Episode 11: US Expansion May Continue For Four More Years, Says Commerce Trust Chief Economist

Published July 11, 2019

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, disagrees with the prevailing consensus that the US expansion is at or near recession.

While growth may have slowed, the economy is in much better shape than is believed by many, with few near term chances of recession according to Colbert, citing leading economic indicators.

Indeed, “if we had to put a number on it…we would push it out towards as much as four more years” of economic expansion.

The market is underestimating the response by policymakers, including by the Federal Reserve, to ward off a slowdown.