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The Fed’s Inflation Battle Is Doomed to Fail: Fabian Wintersberger (Szn 4, Ep. 28)

Published October 12, 2022

Fabian Wintersberger joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, inflation, and Fed policy.

Content Highlights

  • The Fed will not succeed at bringing inflation down to 2%. There will be no soft-landing for the economy (2:48);
  • Interest rate hikes will proceed until something breaks in the real economy, forcing the Fed to reverse course (5:04);
  • Bond yields: We haven’t seen the highs yet (8:16);
  • Background on the guest (14:10);
  • The situation in Europe. Central banks have no choice but to follow the Fed higher (16:38);
  • The situation in Wintersberger’s native Austria, which faces an unprecedented winter with dramatically higher energy costs (18:55);
  • Austria has historical ties to Russia, including in its banking sector, where one institution still has business in the country… (23:27).

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Bullish on Oil, Pipeline Stocks, Long-Term Bullish on Cannabis: Todd Sullivan (Szn 4, Ep 27)

Published October 5, 2022

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win.

Todd Sullivan of ValuePlays.com rejoins the podcast to discuss oil markets and the investment case for cannabis.

Sullivan’s call for $100 oil last year turned out to be prescient. Oil prices have retreated from their peak, but that will be short-lived, he says…

(This episode was recorded Sept. 22, before the recent rebound in oil prices. Premium subscribers get an early actionable highlight clip of the podcast along with earlier release of the full episode — and a host of other benefits. More on our Substack or Supercast.)

Content Highlights

  • Fears of ‘demand destruction’ have led to the decline in oil prices, but risks are tilted toward prices moving higher again. Production is not coming back (3:48);
  • How much of a concern is a slowing Chinese economy when it comes to oil prices? (10:14);
  • What about stocks? Sullivan continues to like pipeline companies… (16:00);
  • The investment case for cannabis: Overview (27:03);
  • The only thing that will unleash capital on the cannabis industry is decriminalization (31:46);
  • What to look for if you are looking to buy and hold cannabis stocks and two of the guest’s favorites (34:30).

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Russia Bond Default, Crypto Fund Blow-Up No Concern to Markets (Yet)

Published June 27, 2022

The following is an amended form of the Daily Contrarian briefing from June 27. This briefing and accompanying podcast are released to premium subscribers each market day morning by 0700. To subscribe, visit our Substack.

Over the weekend we received a couple of troublesome headlines about a Russian bond default and potentially the blow-up of a crypto hedge fund. 

Markets appear to have shrugged this off, moving higher in the pre-market. While this bounce faded at the open, major indexes are only down a few basis points at the time of this writing (0940 EDT on Monday). Cryptos are down a bit, with bitcoin dropping by about 2% to dip below $21,000.

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