recession – Page 29 – The Contrarian Investor Podcast

Season 1, Episode 24: Investors’ Worsening Mood is a Bullish Indicator with Nick From Demonetized Blog

Published November 20, 2019

Counterintuitively, risk assets should benefit from deteriorating sentiments

The collective mood and risk appetite of investors may be turning more cautious, but this makes for a more optimistic outlook for risk assets. The author of the Demonetized Blog (and corresponding Twitter account) joins the podcast to discuss this concept and what it means for the economy and markets going forward.

Content:

Investor surveys as contrarian indicators (2:40) and the “basic principle” that broader conservative positioning makes for bullishness (5:13)
Nick’s “origin story” as an investor (13:36)
Timing is everything. How much longer does this bull market have to run? (17:45)
Interest rates should stay low indefinitely (20:37) and the economy is not facing an imminent recession (22:00)
Prospects of a new president in the U.S. (24:12)
What this all means for asset allocation (26:05) and why investors should keep wary of inflation (28:25)

Not intended as investment advice.

Season 1, Episode 17: The Coming ‘Melt Up’ in Markets, With David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors

Published September 4, 2019

The market cycle has one final upleg, which will be followed by a historic crash

David Hunter, Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, discusses the current state of the economic cycle and why risk assets have a final upleg left before the onset of the bear market.

Content:
The Federal Reserve is behind the curve of the economy (2:00), the coming bust (5:00), predictions for bond prices (8:15), the final “melt up” and why it will be “parabolic” (12:29), echoes of 1982 (16:50), the 2020 bear market (19:34) and recovery, which will bring the first inflationary cycle since the 1970s (21:21), favorite places to be in terms of investments (26:45), $10 oil (30:00)

Not intended as investment advice.

Follow David on Twitter

Season 1, Episode 16: No Ill Effects from Yield Curve Inversion for US Economy

Published August 19, 2019

The 2-year/10-year yield curve inversion is a bad sign for the global economy, but less so for the U.S., says Barry Knapp

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics joins the podcast to discuss the 2-year/10-year yield curve inversion. The gauge is viewed as a harbinger of recession and while global trade has clearly slowed, the U.S. economy should not necessarily see any ill effects in the immediate future, says Knapp.