interest rates – Page 21 – The Contrarian Investor Podcast

Season 2, Episode 19, Transcribed: Picking Spots in Interest Rate, Volatility Markets With Chris Nicholson

Published July 19, 2020

Moderator 0:02
Welcome to the Contrarian Investor Podcast. We give voice to those who challenge a prevailing sentiment in global financial markets. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this podcast should be taken as investment advice. Guests were not compensated for their appearance, nor do they supply payment in order to appear. Individuals on this podcast may hold positions in the securities that are discussed. Listeners are urged to educate themselves and make their own decisions. Now, here’s your host, Mr. Nathaniel E. Baker.

Nathaniel E. Baker 0:36
Chris Nicholson, independent Portfolio Manager. based here in New York, you have a long career most recently at the hedge fund Iron Harbor Capital. And you have a pretty broad cross disciplinary look at assets and geographies. You did a stint in China I know, which I think is valuable now in the present day, considering all the volatility that we’ve seen, and everything that’s happened just from from the COVID crisis alone, but there are other broad forces at work. So maybe we could just start and just for you to get your, to get your views on the market on economies, and how you see things.

Season 2, Episode 19: Picking Spots in Volatility, Interest Rate Markets, With Chris Nicholson

Published June 16, 2020

Hedge fund portfolio manager Chris Nicholson joins the podcast to discuss his outlook on volatility, interest rates, and other markets.

Forecasting these assets has become increasingly problematic in recent years, but there are a few things Nicholson looks to in an effort to identify opportunities for arbitrage.

Content:

U.S. equity prices are determined largely by two axes (3:40);
Inflation expectations have been, well, inflated. This speaks for the relative value of certain bonds (7:03);
What drives inflation anyway? (11:38);
Where to look in currencies (19:05);
Nicholson’s Number One recommendation for investors: take the cheap borrow. Where to put it is the question (21:40);
Sometimes being contrarian is not the smart move. This may be one of those times, at least in FX markets (23:38);
China and the yuan versus the Japanese yen (29:24);
Equity markets in the U.S. and Japan (33:06);
The portfolio manager’s concern about a second wave of COVID (35:40);
Other issues that could be catalysts in 2020 (40:39);
How to trade these views (46:18);

For more information on the guest:

Twitter: @2Christopher
LinkedIn: ChrisNicholson

Not intended as investment advice

Season 2, Episode 8: Assessing Economic Damage From Coronavirus Crisis and Plotting A Way Forward

Published March 17, 2020

With Political Economist Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler, a political economist and currently managing partner at Bannockburn Global Forex, joins the podcast to provide his assessment of the coronavirus impact on the global economy.

Segment time stamps:

This crisis is different, not brought about by the economic cycle but by an exogenous shock (3:15)
Assessing the fiscal and monetary response by policymakers (4:36)
Will there be a “V-shaped” recovery? (6:55)
Recovery in Q3, Q4, but growth will be limited (12:07)
The crisis may accelerate the move to a cashless society (13:12)
Background on the guest (17:43)
What’s something the market is missing? (27:39)
The Age of Surplus (34:13)
Greater accountability for the Federal Reserve (38:21)
The crisis could result in expansion to enfranchisement. To 16-year olds? (43:21)

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