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Season 3, Episode 23: The Long Term Bull Case for Oil (Updated)

Published October 7, 2021

With Todd Sullivan, ValuePlays.com

(Updates with third video below).

Todd Sullivan of ValuePlays.com joins the podcast to discuss his long term bullish views on oil.

The guest also provides his favorite stocks — all portfolio holdings of his — for investors to take advantage of this trend.

Content Highlights

Big picture elements of supply, demand, and infrastructure that are driving the long term bull case for oil (2:50);
What about the potential for an economic slowdown in the U.S. and more importantly China? How might that impact things? (7:39);
Background on the guest and how he turned his passion as a blogger and investor into his current position (11:17);

The three energy names he really likes right now (18:51);
Energy has been unpopular for some time and people are under the illusion that gas and oil are going away. “Nothing could be further from the truth.” (25:28);
Why transport companies are more of a pure-play on energy prices than drillers (29:30);
$100/barrel oil is a “realistic scenario” and prices could stay high after that as the macro outlook remains constructive (37:17);
The bullish outlook for the cannabis industry in the U.S. — this will be the topic of a future episode (42:49).

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Contrarian Calls, Revisited: David Neuhauser’s Bullish Call on Vista Oil

Published August 5, 2021

Presenting at the second Contrarian Investor Virtual Conference on June 3, 2020, David Neuhauser of Livermore Partners made the bullish case for Vista Oil (VIST).

Vista, “the leading pure play company in the Vaca Muerta basin,” interested Neuhauser because of its strong leadership and management, the large number of undeveloped locations in the basin and “an interesting dynamic where they have credential wells and their shale wells.” The shale wells have produced “beyond expectations,” and with oil prices rebounding there was “substantial valuethe ” in the company, he said. VIST was trading around $3 at the time of Neuhauser’s presentation.

Season 3, Episode 7: David Hunter Says Markets to Peak in 2nd Quarter Before Bust

Published March 24, 2021

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to update listeners on his prediction of a ‘parabolic melt-up’ in risk assets that will be followed by a ‘deflationary’ bust.

Over the course of the 40-minute conversation, Hunter also updates his forecasts for rates, technology stocks, commodities, and more.

This podcast was recorded the morning of Monday, March 22 and made available to premium subscribers that same day.

Content Highlights
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment directly)

The coming ‘parabolic melt-up’: new targets for stocks and bonds and timing (3:01);
What will cause the bust: The Fed will be forced to tighten, despite chairman Powell’s current (sincere) views. This will not likely be by raising interest rates but by tapering bond purchases (7:01);
Unlike many of his predecessors, Powell is actually trying to be transparent so those conspiracy theories (including one voiced by the host) are probably wide of the mark (9:36);
“It won’t take a big tightening to send us back in the other direction in a hurry.” People are underestimating how fast this can happen (16:37);
For now the stimulus checks and reopenings have not worked there way through the economy yet. They may not have even started. This will lead to the “final, vertical phase” of the melt-up (21:48);
The coming bust will see a 80% correction, peak to trough (25:14);
What comes after that: the deflationary bust (32:02).