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Tag: oil

Oil Prices Will Rise to $200/Barrel: Salem Abraham (Szn 4, Ep 19)

Published July 18, 2022

Salem Abraham of Abraham Trading Co. joins the podcast to discuss his bullish outlook for oil, predicated on supply issues and under-investment.

Content Highlights

  • The shift to renewable energy is real, even in the Texas panhandle. But the transition is still in the very early stages. Oil and gas are still needed — so are investments in infrastructure (4:13);
  • Worldwide drilling has yet to recover to pre-Covid levels. This will lead to $200/barrel oil and $10 gasoline prices (7:07);
  • “I think we end up with stagflation,” but even that will not solve the supply issues (8:50);
  • Natural gas “is still a great investment” (14:14);
  • The benefits of green hydrogen (16:31);
  • There are more pipelines than popularly believed in the U.S. and they are actually more precarious than transmission lines (19:52);
  • Background on the guest (29:36);
  • Liquid alternatives and the need for better diversification (31:37);
  • The Federal Reserve has to regain credibility after the ‘transitory’ talk. The Fed will blink, eventually… (36:02);
  • Unrelated: Notre Dame will not join the Big 10 for football, says the alumnus (39:49).

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MoreOil Prices Will Rise to $200/Barrel: Salem Abraham (Szn 4, Ep 19)
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The Coming Credit Crunch and Death of Unicorns: Leo Schmidt (Szn 4, Ep 11)

Published April 18, 2022

Leo Schmidt of River Eddy Capital Management rejoins the podcast to discuss the coming credit crunch, its impact on stock market sectors, and where to invest to protect one’s portfolio.

Content Highlights

  • So-called “unicorn” companies, or the darlings of the VC crowd, and others that cannot generate cashflow, will face a tough reckoning (3:17);
  • Undermining this is “a complete change of psychology” in terms of velocity of money (6:27);
  • What if the Fed reverses course? It’s not so simple (8:52);
  • Oil is a short: “Oil is the ultimate liquid commodity” but there is a place for pipeline stocks… (11:38);
  • What stocks can thrive in this type of environment? Look first to medical company spin-offs (19:13);
  • Another area to look: Business development companies, or BDCs. This is a risky part of the market but there is at least one BDC making first-lien loans, which are the safest part of the capital structure… (26:23);
  • Quick epilogue on China’s latest Covid lockdown. There are ways to play the move away from supply chain issues that result (35:58);

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MoreThe Coming Credit Crunch and Death of Unicorns: Leo Schmidt (Szn 4, Ep 11)
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Szn 4, Ep 6: The ‘Bad Times Are Already Here,’ With Acquirers Funds’ Tobias Carlisle

Published March 2, 2022

Tobias Carlisle of Acquirers Funds rejoins the podcast to discuss the stock market’s latest dramatic reversal, this time over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and why investors may be a bit too bullish at present…

Content Highlights

  • How to take the huge reversal last week with Russia-Ukraine? (3:11)
  • Every war starts with “the boys will be home by Christmas,” but most tend to drag on longer than anticipated. Sometimes a lot longer… (5:13);
  • Growth stocks have been in correction territory for some time. Are they in a bear market? Probably… (8:52);
  • The interest rate cycle has not started tightening but inflation has the Fed caught between a rock and a hard place (15:53);
  • Energy and energy stocks are still cheap. Then there are defense contractors. Lockheed Martin (LMT) has benefited from Russia-Ukraine and Carlisle is a holder… (21:25);
  • Facebook aka Meta (FB) is also cheap (23:20);
  • Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs: Dead as Disco (30:12);
  • The aim of investing is to survive the bad times and they are “probably here” (37:18).

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