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Tag: market

EXCLUSIVE for Premium Subscribers: David Hunter on What to Expect From Markets The Rest of This Year and Beyond

Published October 1, 2020

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast in this special episode released a whole week early for premium subscribers. To get it, sign up here for the (temporarily) reduced rate of $8 per month or $88/year.

Hunter in April predicted a dramatic rebound in risk assets. This was deemed outlandish in light of COVID, but has largely come to pass — though a bit short of his original target (4000 for the S&P 500 by Labor Day).

Now Hunter updates his view, with a rather shocking call: what we’ve seen so far was not the real “melt-up.” Most of the gains are still ahead, in fact the coming months should see the final stage of a parabolic “melt-up.” Then things get ugly.

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S2E23 Transcribed: The COVID Disconnect and the Coming ‘Melt Up’ in Markets

Published September 8, 2020

With Enrique Abeyta, Empire Financial Research

Moderator 0:02
Welcome to the Contrarian Investor Podcast. We give voice to those who challenge a prevailing sentiment in global financial markets. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this podcast should be taken as investment advice. guests were not compensated for the appearance, nor do they supply payment in order to appear. Individuals on this podcast may hold positions in the securities that are discussed. Listeners are urged to educate themselves and make their own decisions. Now, here’s your host, Mr. Nathaniel E. Baker.

Nathaniel E. Baker 2:48
Enrique Abeyta, editor at Empire Fnancial Research, which is a publication house put together by Whitney Tilson last year, if I’m not I’m mistaken. But you have a lot of experience in investing, including managing your own hedge fund. And you have a lot of views that are quite outspoken and in many ways quite contrarian, which is why I wanted to have you on the podcast. And so thank you for having for taking the time. So I’m not sure where we should start because we did a previous call and I learned that you are very contrarian on a wide range of issues. So maybe let’s try this. What do you think is the market getting the most wrong at this time?

MoreS2E23 Transcribed: The COVID Disconnect and the Coming ‘Melt Up’ in Markets
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Season 2, Episode 26: John Kay on Radical Uncertainty

Published September 2, 2020

COVID-19 and the pendelum of probabilistic reasoning

University of Oxford economist John Kay joins the podcast to discuss his recent book, “Radical Uncertainty” and its lessons for financial markets in the age of COVID-19.

Content:

  • The premise for the book: Frank Knight, Milton Friedman and the pendelum of probabilistic reasoning (1:20);
  • It is “almost impossible to overstate” the influence of efficient market reasoning on economic and financial market models (4:02);
  • Radical uncertainty: There is a great deal of information that cannot be realistically thought about probabilistically. Enter COVID-19 (8:20);
  • What’s an investor to do with this information? (10:15);
  • Financial modeling has conflated risk, uncertainty, and volatility. They aren’t the same thing (12:53);
  • Time horizons and the importance of imagination. Humans are natural story tellers. This is more important than pure maths (20:24);
  • Where does real estate fit? (25:25);
  • Background on the guest (30:28);
  • What is the market getting wrong right now? (34:37);
  • Short discussion of the U.S. election (41:04).
MoreSeason 2, Episode 26: John Kay on Radical Uncertainty
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