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S2E23 Transcribed: The COVID Disconnect and the Coming ‘Melt Up’ in Markets

Published September 8, 2020

With Enrique Abeyta, Empire Financial Research

Moderator 0:02
Welcome to the Contrarian Investor Podcast. We give voice to those who challenge a prevailing sentiment in global financial markets. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this podcast should be taken as investment advice. guests were not compensated for the appearance, nor do they supply payment in order to appear. Individuals on this podcast may hold positions in the securities that are discussed. Listeners are urged to educate themselves and make their own decisions. Now, here’s your host, Mr. Nathaniel E. Baker.

Nathaniel E. Baker 2:48
Enrique Abeyta, editor at Empire Fnancial Research, which is a publication house put together by Whitney Tilson last year, if I’m not I’m mistaken. But you have a lot of experience in investing, including managing your own hedge fund. And you have a lot of views that are quite outspoken and in many ways quite contrarian, which is why I wanted to have you on the podcast. And so thank you for having for taking the time. So I’m not sure where we should start because we did a previous call and I learned that you are very contrarian on a wide range of issues. So maybe let’s try this. What do you think is the market getting the most wrong at this time?

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Season 2, Episode 26: John Kay on Radical Uncertainty

Published September 2, 2020

COVID-19 and the pendelum of probabilistic reasoning

University of Oxford economist John Kay joins the podcast to discuss his recent book, “Radical Uncertainty” and its lessons for financial markets in the age of COVID-19.

Content:

  • The premise for the book: Frank Knight, Milton Friedman and the pendelum of probabilistic reasoning (1:20);
  • It is “almost impossible to overstate” the influence of efficient market reasoning on economic and financial market models (4:02);
  • Radical uncertainty: There is a great deal of information that cannot be realistically thought about probabilistically. Enter COVID-19 (8:20);
  • What’s an investor to do with this information? (10:15);
  • Financial modeling has conflated risk, uncertainty, and volatility. They aren’t the same thing (12:53);
  • Time horizons and the importance of imagination. Humans are natural story tellers. This is more important than pure maths (20:24);
  • Where does real estate fit? (25:25);
  • Background on the guest (30:28);
  • What is the market getting wrong right now? (34:37);
  • Short discussion of the U.S. election (41:04).
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Season 2, Episode 21: Prepare for the ‘L-Shaped’ Recovery

Published June 30, 2020

With David Neuhauser, Livermore Partners

David Neuhauser of Livermore Partners joins the podcast to discuss his expectation of a “L-shaped” economic recovery and corresponding sideways market activity in the years to come. 

There are still opportunities for investors. Here Neuhauser is bullish on certain companies tied to hard assets like oil and copper.

Content:

  • The “best days” of the market rally have likely passed (3:00), expect more rangebound markets in the short run (4:24);
  • What this period of low growth means for markets in the medium term (8:16);
  • What it means to be a contrarian today (9:39);
  • Background on the guest (12:11);
  • How he spends his time in terms of activist situations (17:40);
  • More specifics on opportunities in energy markets. Hint: it’s not in shale (20:31);
  • Concerns about the demand picture? (24:09);
  • There will be a “massive reset” in markets and fundamentals will take hold, causing “further grinding” to the downside, especially amid high-priced securities (26:45);
  • Neuhauser’s process for finding opportunities (27:46).

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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