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Season 2, Episode 35: How Bubbles and False Narratives Made Financial Markets

Published November 25, 2020

With Jamie Catherwood, Author of InvestorAmnesia.com

With the Dow Industrial Average hitting 30,000 on the day of this recording, revisiting historical booms and busts feels particularly timely.

Jamie Catherwood, the author of InvestorAmnesia.com and a self-proclaimed financial history nerd, is a perfect guide to this discussion.

We discuss booms in treasure hunting, bicycles, railroads, breweries, and of course tulips (which it turns out was greatly exaggerated. The guest debunks this).
MoreSeason 2, Episode 35: How Bubbles and False Narratives Made Financial Markets
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Season 2, Episode 33: Watch for ‘Blue Wave,’ Followed by Rotation Into Value Stocks

Published November 1, 2020

With Scott Colbert, chief economist, Commerce Trust Company

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss the state of the economy on the eve of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. 

In Colbert’s view, the economic recovery is “square root” shaped, with a quick bounce from the bottom followed by “the lazy L that comes after the easy V-part.” Politically, he anticipates a Biden victory and return of the Senate to democratic control. This will eventually lead to a higher tax rate for corporations, which together with a coronavirus vaccine will cause a rotation into value stocks.

MoreSeason 2, Episode 33: Watch for ‘Blue Wave,’ Followed by Rotation Into Value Stocks
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Season 2, Episode 32: Opportunities May Be Brewing in Cyclical Stocks

Published October 21, 2020

With Christian Putz, ARR Investments

Christian Putz is an Austrian-born hedge fund manager currently based in London. His fund has outperformed benchmarks this year during one of the more unpredictable periods in recent memory.

Behind this success is an understanding and appreciation of the big-picture macro environment. Only when that is taken into account does the fund look at individual stocks.

Right now the macro picture is mostly benign with the U.S. election looming. Many sectors remain strong. There are buying opportunities brewing, especially in the oil and gas industry.

Content

  • The macro picture versus individual stocks and where things stand right now (7:28);
  • Economically, things look rather benign. Buying opportunities may abound in the energy industry especially (13:09);
  • Risks “are more to the upside,” with steepening yield curve. This may bode well for the financial sector (16:05);
  • Recent months have seen a rebound in copper prices. That may be overdone. There is a bear market case to be made post election (18:38);
  • Background on the guest (22:39);
  • The fund’s current portfolio allocation (32:10);
  • The benefits of utilities right now (33:42);

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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