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Lessons From Financial History (Szn 6, Epsd 4)Cover art, Szn 6, Episode 4 feat Mark Higgins

Lessons From Financial History (Szn 6, Epsd 4)

Published March 13, 2024

With Mark Higgins, Author, ‘Investing in Financial History’

Mark Higgins, author of the new book, Investing in Financial History, joins the podcast to discuss lessons from the past and what period is the most appropriate point of comparison to today’s market environment.

Content Highlights

  • What period from the past compares closest to the one we’re living through now? It’s a combination of several… (1:56);
  • The last time the US — and Federal Reserve — battled serious inflation was from 1965 to the early 1980s. Here there are several parallels to today’s age… (4:36);
  • The Fed appeared to turn more accommodative in December and January. This may have been a mistake (9:04);
  • Financial history is very much a history of panics, but there has not been a major bank run in the US since the Great Depression (11:51);
  • Portfolios have become increasingly complex without proper consideration of cost — and risks (15:40);
  • Decentralized currencies aren’t new and in fact once characterized the US dollar — and for the same reason (fear of central banks and fiat currency, etc). That didn’t end well… (18:06);
  • Background on the guest and how he came to write the book (22:05);
  • Bubbles and their challenges. Some commonalities include the media as trailing indicator… (27:17);
  • The 180 degree turn on public debt by US public officials (29:36);
  • The US dollar will likely be replaced as global reserve currency one day (33:25).

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US Economic Outlook ‘Surprisingly Optimistic’ (Szn 6, Episode 2)podcast cover image feat Scott Colbert, chief economist, Commerce Trust Co.

US Economic Outlook ‘Surprisingly Optimistic’ (Szn 6, Episode 2)

Published February 1, 2024

Scott Colbert, Chief Economist, Commerce Trust Co.

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss his “surprisingly optimistic” outlook for the US economy in 2024.

This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 30, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our Substack or Supercast pages.

Content Highlights

  • The outlook for the economy is surprisingly optimistic given the set-up going in to last year (1:30);
  • The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates for some time (2:39);
  • Can stocks continue to advance without rate cuts? The outlook for small caps and mid-caps… (6:35);
  • The outlook for bonds: surprisingly constructive even if there aren’t rate cuts right away (10:05);
  • How the economy is breaking down geographically in the US… (17:01);
  • Commercial real estate is ‘the canary in the coal mine’ but nowhere near as pervasive as subprime residential pre-2008… (24:36);
  • The guest’s take on the impact of this year’s US presidential election (28:15);
  • Top concerns start with deficit spending… (33:23);
  • An economist’s take on the AI revolution (39:28).

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Markets Face Headwinds in First Half of 2024 (Szn 6, Episode 1)

Published January 11, 2024

Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics

This episode was recorded on Jan. 8, 2024, and made available to premium subscribers the following day — without ads or announcements. For details on how to become a premium subscriber (it’s very easy), visit our Substack or Supercast.

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his outlook for the economy and markets in 2024.

Content Highlights

  • Knapp’s outlook for 2023 played out until September. Then the Fed changed the rules of the game somewhat and markets now face a difficult period… (3:29);
  • Investors are expecting a recovery in earnings, which may be hard to achieve (7:00);
  • The drop in inflation can be traced to one cause: a deflationary shock in goods prices (8:57);
  • How the Fed can justify interest rates as soon as March… (11:36);
  • Why bonds haven’t continued to rally this year (16:58);
  • The Fed will cut to 4% by year-end and the yield curve should dis-invert with 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.5% (22:06);
  • Fed independence is taken for granted. That may be about to change… (28:35);
  • Only four occasions post WWII have seen yield curve inversions this deep. All have led to major recessions… (36:40);
  • How do stocks look in this whole picture (40:31)

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