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The Economy’s Soft-Landing Will Be Short-Lived: Peter Kraus, Aperture Investors (Szn 5, Ep 20)Contrarian Investor Podcast Season 5 Episode 20 cover art

The Economy’s Soft-Landing Will Be Short-Lived: Peter Kraus, Aperture Investors (Szn 5, Ep 20)

Published August 11, 2023

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers the same day it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast.

Peter Kraus, founder and CEO of Aperture Investors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, why he expects the ‘soft landing’ to occur, but why it will quickly give way to renewed concerns.

Content Highlights

  • An economic soft landing is likely, but will be transitional (1:38);
  • The Fed is unlikely to ‘break more stuff’ as this spring’s banking crisis was a short-term liquidity crisis that has since been resolved. But refinancing will be a problem (4:12);
  • Inflation will be more persistent and ‘sticky’ than markets are pricing in right now. This doesn’t leave bonds in a very good position (7:20);
  • When it comes to stocks, expect volatility until late autumn at which point higher interest rates will start to bite (16:17);
  • The consumer, and consumer stocks, will lead the rebound starting as early as December (19:33);
  • Background on the guest (26:06);
  • China’s driver of commodity prices may be over (35:42).

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Contrarian Wealth-Generation Concepts (Szn 5, Ep. 18)

Published July 20, 2023

With Stephanie Walter, Erbe Wealth

Stephanie Walter of Erbe Wealth joins the podcast to discuss some of the trade secrets of ultra-wealthy investors. Listeners may be shocked to hear about their very small allocation to public equities…

Content Highlights

  • A unique way to generate tax-free income through so-called premium financing insurance (1:51);
  • The security works as a life insurance policy with a premium paid by a bank (5:45);
  • These securities are illiquid, with a lock-up of 10 to 15 years, but the coupon pays double-digit percent — tax free (7:34);
  • Cap rates are starting to rise, creating opportunities in commercial real estate. One example is retail in Wyoming (14:23);
  • Office space is a different animal however. Too much risk, not enough reward (18:50);
  • Background on the guest (22:27);
  • Some of the ways ultra-wealthy allocate funds (very little to public equities), and the mindsets behind them (26:06);
  • What about cryptos? (33:48);
  • There are reasons to be concerned about the economy. Taxes could be a wild card here. Also interest rates (34:48).

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Inflation Will Persist Above the Fed’s Comfort Level (Szn 5, Episode 15)

Published June 7, 2023

With Naomi Fink, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink, founder and CEO at Europacifica Consulting in Los Angeles, joins the podcast to discuss her view that inflation will prove more elevated and persistent than market participants are anticipating — and how and where this impact will be felt.

Content Highlights

  • Inflation caught investors by surprise and investors could be forgiven for thinking inflation will drop again. But inflation will more likely normalize around a higher rate (3:15);
  • There are multiple reasons for this: reversal of globalization, limits to technological advancements, supply shocks, geopolitical unrest, and labor supply shortages, to name a few (4:09);
  • Where does this leave Fed policy? (6:03);
  • Retailers have been reporting a consumer pullback on big ticket purchases: business cycle or inflation? (13:52);
  • Companies will need to innovate to deal with more persistent inflation and a skills shortage. Those that don’t will be left behind (16:34);
  • AI is not a cure-all and may in fact be mostly hype (18:23);
  • Background on the guest (24:53);
  • Japan and Japan stocks (28:36);
  • Social security cost of living adjustments are not keeping up with inflation. The impact (33:59);
  • What options do retirees have to maintain their purchasing power on fixed income? (38:17);
  • Financial literacy is vital but may be a double-edged sword… (46:28).

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