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Inflation Will Ease, Fed Hikes Will Not: Richard Excell (Szn 4, Ep 24)

Published September 14, 2022

Richard Excell, former prop trader and portfolio manager and currently a professor of finance at Gies College of Business, joined the podcast to discuss his outlook on the economy, inflation, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and more.

Content Highlights

  • The outlook on inflation: 5% by December, but don’t expect the Fed to ease off of rate hikes (7:14);
  • Can the Fed engineer a soft landing? It has succeeded just three of the last 14 times it hiked rates… (9:34);
  • We may not see a housing price decline on a national basis anytime soon (14:05);
  • Expect a 75 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on Sept. 20 — and again at the subsequent meeting in November, even though the economy should not start to brake until next year (16:11);
  • Background on the guest (22:02);
  • Views on asset allocation: more constructive for bonds than equities at present (27:03);
  • A recession will happen. The good news: it may be mild… (32:30);
  • How much of a concern are global issues in Europe and China? (35:40).

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Hugh Hendry, OG Contrarian (Szn 4, Ep21)

Published August 9, 2022

Hugh Hendry is a man who needs no introduction to contrarians. Over the course of this 90-minute conversation, he provided many views on markets, the economy, the Federal Reserve, China, and a lot more. Of particular interest to investors are his bullish views on commodities, oil producers, and luxury goods makers…

Content Highlights

  • Hendry’s most contrarian opinion right off the bat: The Fed is not responsible for the asset price bubble (2:40);
  • “We find ourselves in the fourth depression of the last 200 years” after “les miserables” period of 1830 to ~1855, 1870 to the late 1890s, and the 1930s (8:11);
  • “I don’t think we have inflation.” Sales of non-discretionary items are not increasing (13:53);
  • Very few people understand money and money creation. What are they missing? (28:56);
  • What’s behind the stock market rally this summer? It may be commodities, at least in part… (39:49);
  • Markets are ‘bucking broncos.’ Volatility can be a major distraction and nothing happens in a straight line. But commodity producers and uranium should be in good shape over the long term (46:55);
  • Background on the guest. As an ‘OG contrarian’ Hendry joins an exclusive list (54:58);
  • A little insight into Hendry’s current life and psychology (1:10:40);
  • Betting on the Chinese yuan weakening (1:14:37);
  • The odds of the 10-year treasury making new lows (1:22:44);
  • China invading Taiwan? Hendry sets the odds at 20% and says China will never have a stronger bargaining positioning vis-a-vis the U.S (1:24:16).

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Oil Prices Will Rise to $200/Barrel: Salem Abraham (Szn 4, Ep 19)

Published July 18, 2022

Salem Abraham of Abraham Trading Co. joins the podcast to discuss his bullish outlook for oil, predicated on supply issues and under-investment.

Content Highlights

  • The shift to renewable energy is real, even in the Texas panhandle. But the transition is still in the very early stages. Oil and gas are still needed — so are investments in infrastructure (4:13);
  • Worldwide drilling has yet to recover to pre-Covid levels. This will lead to $200/barrel oil and $10 gasoline prices (7:07);
  • “I think we end up with stagflation,” but even that will not solve the supply issues (8:50);
  • Natural gas “is still a great investment” (14:14);
  • The benefits of green hydrogen (16:31);
  • There are more pipelines than popularly believed in the U.S. and they are actually more precarious than transmission lines (19:52);
  • Background on the guest (29:36);
  • Liquid alternatives and the need for better diversification (31:37);
  • The Federal Reserve has to regain credibility after the ‘transitory’ talk. The Fed will blink, eventually… (36:02);
  • Unrelated: Notre Dame will not join the Big 10 for football, says the alumnus (39:49).

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MoreOil Prices Will Rise to $200/Barrel: Salem Abraham (Szn 4, Ep 19)
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