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Season 3, Episode 19: When Investors Become Gamblers — And Why It’s Happening Now

Published August 17, 2021

With William L. Silber, Author of ‘The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business’

William L. Silber, author of the book ‘The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business,’ joins the podcast to discuss his thesis that individuals, including investors, can become reckless gamblers if they have nothing to lose.

Silber has a career dating back to 1966 in academia and Wall Street. His comments are pertinent in the present day of cryptocurrencies, the ‘retailization’ of options trading, NFTs, and meme stocks, among others. So is his recommendation (not investment advice) to reduce risk exposure.

Content Highlights

  • When people have downside protection and limitless losses, “they tend to become reckless and almost gamblers” (3:48)

  • Rogue traders and the skewed payoff that makes them go rogue (14:41);

  • What to make of the present day and investors’ collective risk appetite, especially regarding meme stocks? (17:32);

  • Background on the guest (24:55);

  • A valuable lesson learned at Odyssey Partners in the 1980s: what’s an exit strategy? (27:47);

  • Is this a time for investors to reduce risks and sell stocks? (30:26);

  • Precious metals and their place in a modern portfolio (36:52);
MoreSeason 3, Episode 19: When Investors Become Gamblers — And Why It’s Happening Now
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Season 3, Episode 7: David Hunter Says Markets to Peak in 2nd Quarter Before Bust

Published March 24, 2021

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to update listeners on his prediction of a ‘parabolic melt-up’ in risk assets that will be followed by a ‘deflationary’ bust.

Over the course of the 40-minute conversation, Hunter also updates his forecasts for rates, technology stocks, commodities, and more.

This podcast was recorded the morning of Monday, March 22 and made available to premium subscribers that same day.

Content Highlights
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment directly)
  • The coming ‘parabolic melt-up’: new targets for stocks and bonds and timing (3:01);
  • What will cause the bust: The Fed will be forced to tighten, despite chairman Powell’s current (sincere) views. This will not likely be by raising interest rates but by tapering bond purchases (7:01);
  • Unlike many of his predecessors, Powell is actually trying to be transparent so those conspiracy theories (including one voiced by the host) are probably wide of the mark (9:36);
  • “It won’t take a big tightening to send us back in the other direction in a hurry.” People are underestimating how fast this can happen (16:37);
  • For now the stimulus checks and reopenings have not worked there way through the economy yet. They may not have even started. This will lead to the “final, vertical phase” of the melt-up (21:48);
  • The coming bust will see a 80% correction, peak to trough (25:14);
  • What comes after that: the deflationary bust (32:02).
MoreSeason 3, Episode 7: David Hunter Says Markets to Peak in 2nd Quarter Before Bust
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Season 3, Episode 5: The Case for Precious Metals Miners, With Sean Fieler, Equinox Partners

Published March 4, 2021

Sean Fieler, president and chief investment officer at hedge fund firm Equinox Partners, joins the podcast to make the case for an unloved part of the equity markets: gold and silver miners.

This case is based on several variables, starting with unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy that has marked this particular epoch in global financial markets. “The idea that gold and silver wouldn’t do well in that environment are totally at odds with financial history,” says Fieler.

It goes a lot further than this, of course. Fieler discusses the variables and even presents some favorite stocks.

Content Segments
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the section directly)
  • The case for underlying gold and silver miners, including the compounding of fiscal and monetary policy. (3:03);
  • Why invest in miners rather than in the physical commodity, or futures contracts thereon? (7:26);
  • One concern with ETFs tracking prices of physical metals: the administrators are not necessarily reliable counterparties (9:00);
  • There are risks with owning miners as well, of course (11:41);
  • More information on the guest (15:17);
  • One surprising fact: West Africa is a good place to build a mine. Latin America is much more difficult (17:27);
  • Ghana’s fledgling securities market may be a good opportunity for investment (19:48);
  • One favorite stock: Endeavor Mining Corp (OTC:EDVMF) (21:35);
  • A microcap name to watch: RTG Mining (GREY: RTGGF), a copper and gold miner in the Philippines (25:19);
  • A little background on the fund, which predates the gym of the same name (27:52).
Not intended as investment advice.

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