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Tag: Federal Reserve

Season 1, Episode 1: Markets Underestimate the Risk of Major Corrections

With Sunrise Capital’s Chris Stanton

Chris Stanton, partner and chief investment officer at Sunrise Capital Partners, sat down with host Nathaniel E. Baker to discuss risks facing markets and the economy.

On the surface, the investing environment looks rather benign, with solid employment and consumer data easing recession fears. But the 2019 recovery in risk assets is at an important juncture. As the market looks for a catalyst that could lead to a “melt-up”, pockets of risk are accumulating.

The chances of a significant liquidity event akin to the “taper tantrum” or even the 1987 crash are rising. Stanton tells listeners what to look for. The Russell 2000 Index may hold one clue…

03:03 – What are the Fed’s options yields on the 10-year go to 3%?

05:40 – The upcoming “pivot points” that could lead to big corrections.

09:10 – The sell-off in bonds and ineffectiveness of Fed policy.

11:05 – Could the market be underpricing a liquidity event? The S&P “looks an awful lot like a spread triple top.”

16:05 – Liquidity events, and the corresponding spikes in volatility, are becoming more frequent.

17:30 – Stanton discusses his background and Sunrise Capital’s approach to investing.

21:40 – “The physics of markets.” Risk is accumulating and the increasing likelihood of a selloff akin to what happened in the fourth quarter.

35:00 – The market continues to be Fed-dependent. A problem as it appears to be losing confidence with the current Fed chairman.

37:00 – The case for active management.

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The Contrarian Investor Podcast: Pilot Episode

The inverted yield curve, with guest Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics

Act I: Host introduces an area of conventional wisdom in financial markets or the economy, something that has perhaps already been priced in to markets. In this case: the inverted yield curve and what it is saying about (slowing) economic growth in the U.S. (1:41)

Act II: Enter the contrarian. In this case Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. (2:20)

Break: Placeholder to shout out to sponsors and tell people how and where to follow the guest and his or her research. In this case please check out the guest: ironsidesmacro.substack.com (11:20)

Act III: Host attempts to play devil’s advocate, questioning the contrarian’s thesis . (13:25)

Act IV: Actionable insights. What concrete steps might investors take if the contrarian is correct? What stocks, bonds, indexes, sectors should they look to? (23:00)

Disclaimer: Nothing said here should be considered investment advice.

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