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Tag: Federal Reserve

Hard Landing for the US Economy, Mild Recession to Spare Emerging Markets (Szn 5, Epsd 23)

With Ayesha Tariq, MacroVisor

This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 29 with a ‘highlight’ clip of the most actionable insights released to premium subscribers that same day. Premium subscribers then received the full episode — without ads or interruptions — the following day, on Aug. 30.

Ayesha Tariq, co-founder of MacroVisor, rejoins the podcast to discuss why she is expecting a hard landing for the US economy along with other contrarian views she has about the Federal Reserve and global financial markets.

Content Highlights

  • The ‘soft landing’ scenario has effectively become the base case. Why that’s wrong (1:32);
  • Unlike many (most?) recessions, this one will not be preceded by a Fed-induced credit event. For this reason, it will be milder (4:44);
  • The Federal Reserve is likely to hike at its next meeting on Sept. 20. That will be its last hike this cycle (8:53);
  • The US downturn will not necessarily lead to a global recession (12:58);
  • The outlook for commodities, specifically copper, is bullish despite the bearish economic outlook (18:48);
  • Rate hikes might be off the table, but quantitative tightening could still be incoming in 2024 (23:45);
  • New segment: Listener questions. Whoever’s questions are read wins a free Contrarian mug. First up: what to make of Nvidia and AI (26:36);
  • Next listener question: what to look for in bank earnings? (31:42);
  • One area of the stock market where the guest is particularly bullish (36:35).

For more about the guest, visit her website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X.

Not investment advice.

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Inflation Will Persist Above the Fed’s Comfort Level (Szn 5, Episode 15)

With Naomi Fink, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink, founder and CEO at Europacifica Consulting in Los Angeles, joins the podcast to discuss her view that inflation will prove more elevated and persistent than market participants are anticipating — and how and where this impact will be felt.

Content Highlights

  • Inflation caught investors by surprise and investors could be forgiven for thinking inflation will drop again. But inflation will more likely normalize around a higher rate (3:15);
  • There are multiple reasons for this: reversal of globalization, limits to technological advancements, supply shocks, geopolitical unrest, and labor supply shortages, to name a few (4:09);
  • Where does this leave Fed policy? (6:03);
  • Retailers have been reporting a consumer pullback on big ticket purchases: business cycle or inflation? (13:52);
  • Companies will need to innovate to deal with more persistent inflation and a skills shortage. Those that don’t will be left behind (16:34);
  • AI is not a cure-all and may in fact be mostly hype (18:23);
  • Background on the guest (24:53);
  • Japan and Japan stocks (28:36);
  • Social security cost of living adjustments are not keeping up with inflation. The impact (33:59);
  • What options do retirees have to maintain their purchasing power on fixed income? (38:17);
  • Financial literacy is vital but may be a double-edged sword… (46:28).

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Mild Recession Brings Opportunities in Tech Stocks, Corporate Bonds: (Season 5, Episode 12)

Feat Elliot Kallen, Prosperity Financial Group

Elliot Kallen, founder of Prosperity Financial Group, joins the podcast to discuss his expectations for a coming recession, to start this summer, and why some of the best opportunities may be in technology stocks and corporate bonds.

Content Highlights

  • Tech stocks: the pullback is coming (3:31);
  • The market is starting to flatline. Look to midcap value stocks (6:04);
  • The Fed will likely raise rates one more time and then reverse. Time to buy bonds — corporates (8:47);
  • Consumers have already started to pull back, judging by some primary evidence the guest gathers… (12:02);
  • Why the recession will be mild, despite the red flags (17:38);
  • Background on the guest (24:00);
  • Active management has its place (30:24);
  • Thoughts on the next generation growth industries (36:53).

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