Press "Enter" to skip to content

Tag: Federal Reserve

Season 3, Episode 20: The ‘New Normal’ of Blue-Collar Labor Shortages

Published August 30, 2021

With Gad Levanon, head of Labor Market Institute at The Conference Board

Gad Levanon, head of Labor Market Institute at The Conference Board, joins the podcast to discuss his views of employment trends.

Levanon’s analysis differs from the consensus view of labor markets. In his view, unusual demographic and educational trends are causing a ‘new normal’ of shortages among blue-collar workers. These jobs can be expected to see fast wage growth, bringing a host of restraints on the next stage of economic expansion.

Content Highlights:

  • The ‘new normal’ of labor shortages (3:35);

  • The economic impact of rising wages for blue-collar workers: corporate profits and higher consumer prices (7:29);

  • Automation has the potential to help the trend somewhat, but there are reasons to be skeptical (10:37);

  • How close is the U.S. to reaching full employment? (14:29);
  • What all of this says for the next stage of the economic cycle (16:57);
  • Background on the guest (20:22);

  • The ‘work-from-home’ trend and how that is impacting things (22:47);

  • Other trends in employment and labor markets (27:27);
  • The guest’s primary concerns about the economy and society at present (31:22).
MoreSeason 3, Episode 20: The ‘New Normal’ of Blue-Collar Labor Shortages
Leave a Comment

Season 3, Episode 17: Don’t Fear Inflation, the Fed is Right, 10-Year Yields to Drop to 0.5% (Updated)

Published July 15, 2021

With Alfonso Peccatiello, The Macro Compass

(Adds transcript to the bottom of this page. To get the transcript sooner, and take advantage of a host of other benefits, become a premium subscriber).

Alfonso Peccatiello joins the podcast to discuss his contrarian views on inflation, bond yields, and interest rates.

The guest doesn’t buy the inflation narrative entirely, believing credit creation has peaked. We are likely to see negative economic surprises and drawdowns in risk assets starting in the fourth quarter. The yield on 10-year bonds should peak at 0.5% due to a ‘Eurofication’ of the U.S. yield curve.

MoreSeason 3, Episode 17: Don’t Fear Inflation, the Fed is Right, 10-Year Yields to Drop to 0.5% (Updated)
Comments closed

Season 3, Episode 15: Colin Lancaster is Fed Up!

Published June 23, 2021

The macro trader discusses his book and what to make of central bank policies.

Colin Lancaster, global head of macro/fixed income at Schonfeld Strategic Partner Fund, joins the podcast to discuss his book Fed Up! Success, Excess and Crisis Through the Eyes of a Hedge Fund Macro Trader.

The book spans the period from October 2019 to June 2020 and includes the height of the coronavirus crisis. This features heavily into the conversation. We also discuss the Federal Reserve and his view of current markets.

Content Highlights:
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly)
  • What went into him writing the book? What was the impetus? (3:50);
  • Macro investing and the need to be a diversifier and disaster hedge (7:38);
  • What is he most concerned about right now in markets? (12:07);
  • What does an investor do in this market, especially with the Fed continuing to hold rates near zero? (14:30);
  • The Fed’s experiment is “dangerous” and the central bank has “very little credibility” when it comes to inflation (18:55);
  • Background on the guest (23:49);
  • The Fed’s role in creating and fostering wealth inequality is significant, despite its good intentions (27:48);
  • How to go about fixing this? Does the Fed perhaps have too much autonomy? (31:30);
  • The book is technically a novel and has quite a few characters. Are these fictional or based on real people? (36:28);
  • Alternative data; some ideas of what to look for (40:35).
MoreSeason 3, Episode 15: Colin Lancaster is Fed Up!
Comments closed