Pessimism’s Return, Trump 2.0 Opportunities, With Phil Pecsok, Anacapa Advisors (Szn, 7, Epsd 4)

Podcast episode cover art featuring Phil Pecsok

Pessimism’s Return, Trump 2.0 Opportunities, With Phil Pecsok, Anacapa Advisors (Szn, 7, Epsd 4)

Published March 4, 2025

Phil Pecsok of Anacapa Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss the return of pessimism to the market and the economic and market repercussions of Trump’s various policies.

This podcast episode was recorded in two segments, the second on Feb. 24 with the express purpose of discussing with the then-nascent sell-off and Nvidia (NVDA) earnings. More information is available here.

This podcast deviates from the usual format by including the guest’s first-hand account of the LA wildfires. This admittedly has only limited relation to investing, but was kept mostly intact for human interest reasons. Listeners can skip past these segments, identified below.

Walmart (WMT) earnings ushered in a fresh round of selling in stocks that has yet to reverse (1:05)
The concerns raised by Walmart earnings are legitimate, but stocks should still rise this year (5:02);
The guest, a resident of the Pacific Palisades, recounts his harrowing experience with the LA fires (11:25);
Economic repercussions of the fires (14:32);
Trump will ultimately be good for the economy and for markets. Fade any Trump-generated market panic (27:51);
Why you shouldn’t buy defense contractor stocks yet (37:18);
The outlook for inflation is not great. This will likely keep the Fed from cutting rates (41:52).

For more on the guest and his firm, visit the website AnacapaAdvisors.com.

Prepare for End of US Dollar Cycle, as Emerging Markets Rise (Szn 7, Epsd 2)

Published February 13, 2025

With Rohit Goel, Breakout Capital

Rohit Goel of Breakout Capital joins the podcast to discuss his view that the boom in the US dollar (and in US dollar-denominated assets) will soon give way, to be replaced by a long-awaited bullish cycle in emerging markets.

This podcast episode was recorded Friday, Feb. 7 and released to premium subscribers the following business day. There are numerous other benefits to becoming a premium subscriber, which can be read on our Substack.

Content Highlights

Markets have grown accustomed to US dollar dominance and with it a surge in US assets, specifically stocks. That is due for a cyclical reversal (1:00);
There are three factors supporting US growth. One of them is almost certainly due to run its course (4:43);
The global economy revolves around the US consumer as driver of growth. But that too can change — and other markets are better equipped to pick up the slack on their own (9:26);
Despite all this, the US dollar should maintain its status as reserve currency. However, its dominance is waning (14:55);
Background on the guest (23:28);
Big tech stocks have worked very well for over a decade. But things are shifting to eat into their cashflows and there are reasons to believe too much optimism could be priced in… (26:07);
The trend is for growth to originate elsewhere than US tech… (30:28);
Discussion of frontier markets (35:33).

The guest requests listeners connect through LinkedIn.

Opportunities in Closed-End Municipal Bond Funds (Szn 6, Epsd 21)

Published November 21, 2024

With Jonathan Browne, RiverNorth Capital

Jonathan Browne, portfolio manager at RiverNorth Capital, joins the podcast to discuss investment opportunities in municipal bonds, specifically through the closed-end fund structure.