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Tag: Federal Reserve

Economic Cycle Still Has Room to Run, Even With Tariffs (Szn 7, Epsd 5)Podcast episode cover art featuring guest Scott Colbert

Economic Cycle Still Has Room to Run, Even With Tariffs (Szn 7, Epsd 5)

Published March 11, 2025

With Scott Colbert, Commerce Trust

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss why the economy can continue to expand even with the onset of Trump tariffs.

Content Highlights

  • The “Trump tariff barrage” will lead to slower growth, lower economic activity, and higher inflation — in the short term (1:51);
  • Over the medium term however, tariffs should not trigger a recession, nor will they have a lasting impact on prices aka inflation (6:24);
  • Labor markets: Immigration has ground to a halt, but people are aging out of the workforce. Government layoffs notwithstanding, that should result in a wash (10:23);
  • Ultimately the economic cycle is half way through its growth stage, which should run for another four years. However this won’t be great for growth stocks like the ‘magnificent 7’… (15:14);
  • Fixed income is suddenly an attractive asset class and international stocks have tailwinds as well… (18:03);
  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker is suddenly predicting a negative print for first-quarter GDP. There are logical reasons for this (24:23).

More on the Guest

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Pessimism’s Return, Trump 2.0 Opportunities, With Phil Pecsok, Anacapa Advisors (Szn, 7, Epsd 4)Podcast episode cover art featuring Phil Pecsok

Pessimism’s Return, Trump 2.0 Opportunities, With Phil Pecsok, Anacapa Advisors (Szn, 7, Epsd 4)

Published March 4, 2025

Phil Pecsok of Anacapa Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss the return of pessimism to the market and the economic and market repercussions of Trump’s various policies.

This podcast episode was recorded in two segments, the second on Feb. 24 with the express purpose of discussing with the then-nascent sell-off and Nvidia (NVDA) earnings. More information is available here.

This podcast deviates from the usual format by including the guest’s first-hand account of the LA wildfires. This admittedly has only limited relation to investing, but was kept mostly intact for human interest reasons. Listeners can skip past these segments, identified below.

  • Walmart (WMT) earnings ushered in a fresh round of selling in stocks that has yet to reverse (1:05)
  • The concerns raised by Walmart earnings are legitimate, but stocks should still rise this year (5:02);
  • The guest, a resident of the Pacific Palisades, recounts his harrowing experience with the LA fires (11:25);
  • Economic repercussions of the fires (14:32);
  • Trump will ultimately be good for the economy and for markets. Fade any Trump-generated market panic (27:51);
  • Why you shouldn’t buy defense contractor stocks yet (37:18);
  • The outlook for inflation is not great. This will likely keep the Fed from cutting rates (41:52).

For more on the guest and his firm, visit the website AnacapaAdvisors.com.

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Prepare for End of US Dollar Cycle, as Emerging Markets Rise (Szn 7, Epsd 2)Podcast episode cover art feat Rohit Goel, Breakout Capital

Prepare for End of US Dollar Cycle, as Emerging Markets Rise (Szn 7, Epsd 2)

Published February 13, 2025

With Rohit Goel, Breakout Capital

Rohit Goel of Breakout Capital joins the podcast to discuss his view that the boom in the US dollar (and in US dollar-denominated assets) will soon give way, to be replaced by a long-awaited bullish cycle in emerging markets.

This podcast episode was recorded Friday, Feb. 7 and released to premium subscribers the following business day. There are numerous other benefits to becoming a premium subscriber, which can be read on our Substack.

Content Highlights

  • Markets have grown accustomed to US dollar dominance and with it a surge in US assets, specifically stocks. That is due for a cyclical reversal (1:00);
  • There are three factors supporting US growth. One of them is almost certainly due to run its course (4:43);
  • The global economy revolves around the US consumer as driver of growth. But that too can change — and other markets are better equipped to pick up the slack on their own (9:26);
  • Despite all this, the US dollar should maintain its status as reserve currency. However, its dominance is waning (14:55);
  • Background on the guest (23:28);
  • Big tech stocks have worked very well for over a decade. But things are shifting to eat into their cashflows and there are reasons to believe too much optimism could be priced in… (26:07);
  • The trend is for growth to originate elsewhere than US tech… (30:28);
  • Discussion of frontier markets (35:33).

The guest requests listeners connect through LinkedIn.

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