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Tag: Federal Reserve

Risks Point to Downside in 2024 (Szn 5, Epsd 29)Contrarian Investor Podcast Season 5, Episode 29 feat Kyrill Asatur, Centerfin

Risks Point to Downside in 2024 (Szn 5, Epsd 29)

Published December 27, 2023

With Kyrill Asatur, Centerfin

This podcast episode was recorded Dec. 20, 2023 and made available exclusively — without ads or announcements — for premium subscribers that same day. This is just one of the benefits of becoming a premium subscriber. The others are detailed on our Supercast or Substack pages.

Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, re-joins the podcast to discuss his views going into 2024 and the likelihood there won’t be a ‘soft landing’ for the economy next year.

Content Highlights

  • Consensus estimates for 2024 are going to be wrong, just like they were for this year and every year before it (2:12);
  • Coming in to this year the banking sector was a concern, though as it turned out for the wrong reasons (4:39);
  • The catalyst for the reversal this fall and the new, dovish Fed (7:26);
  • The contrarian call is that they’re won’t be a soft landing — or a stock market crash (11:44);
  • Possible explanation for the ‘Fed pivot’ (16:48);
  • How the guest is allocating assets going into 2024 (23:56);
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) discussion (29:02).

More on the Guest

This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.

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Short-Term Treasuries: The Place to Be (Szn 5, Episode 28)Podcast episode cover art feat Jared Dillian, Daily Dirt Nap

Short-Term Treasuries: The Place to Be (Szn 5, Episode 28)

Published December 5, 2023

Feat Jared Dillian, Daily Dirt Nap

This podcast episode was recorded Nov. 29, 2023 and made available to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast.

Jared Dillian of the Daily Dirt Nap joins the podcast to discuss his bullish views on short-term Treasuries and less optimistic outlook for the US economy. He also discusses his work as an author and views on disparate issues facing society. 

Note: The podcast episode contains some mature language.

Content Highlights

  • The ‘soft landing’ scenario appears to have become the base case. Dillian doesn’t quite buy that (1:37);
  • To be bullish on short-term Treasuries one needs to believe the Fed is going to cut rates. That is imminent (4:26);
  • Addressing the inflation bogeyman. The risk has maybe receded over the short term, but what about a return over the medium term? There is historical precedent for this from the last time inflation was a serious force in the US… (9:37);
  • Background on the guest and a broad discussion of his time at Lehman Brothers (including its downfall), working on Wall Street, career paths, education, and more…(15:48)

More About the Guest

Mention this podcast for a generous discount on the Daily Dirt Nap!

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Opportunities in Credit Markets with Tom Carney, Weitz Investments (Szn 5, Episode 26)Cover art, podcast season 5, episode 26

Opportunities in Credit Markets with Tom Carney, Weitz Investments (Szn 5, Episode 26)

Published October 31, 2023

This episode was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 26 without ads or announcements. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack or Supercast.

Tom Carney, co-head of fixed-income at Weitz Investments, joins the podcast to discuss his (perhaps surprisingly) optimistic view of bond and credit markets.

Content Highlights

  • Carney’s views on the bond market. Interest rates have created a much-improved, encouraging environment for investors (1:33);
  • Opportunities include the non-corporate bond market, specifically the asset-backed securities market (5:38);
  • The guest has a unique view into consumer lending. There are defaults, but not more than usual (10:37);
  • Discussion of the mortgage-backed securities market. There too, defaults are not particularly prevalent (13:05);
  • How big of a concern is the Fed? (24:25);
  • Background on the guest (29:57);
  • What about his concerns facing markets at present? (38:09).

For more information on the guest, visit the website WeitzInvestments.com.

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