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Stagflation Is Coming Soon, Staying Awhile: Axel Merk (Szn 4, Ep 25)

Published September 21, 2022

This podcast episode was recorded on Sept. 16, with a short highlight clip containing the most actionable items released to premium subscribers that same day. The full episode was released to premium subscribers without ads or interruptions a day after recording. 

Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments, joins the podcast to discuss his views on stagflation, the Federal Reserve, U.S. dollar, and why the bottom is not yet in for stocks.

Content Highlights

  • Printing money does not fix supply issues. Next stop: Stagflation (2:59);
  • The current environment simply is not conducive to taking risks (11:15);
  • There’s too much groupthink at the Fed and it’s time for Jerome Powell to step down (13:21);
  • The bottom for stocks is not in yet. The Fed needs to pivot first. What to watch for there (15:26);
  • Background on the guest (24:43);
  • The outlook for gold (31:20);
  • How high might the Fed go with interest rates? (34:09).

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FedEx Stock Drop: Some Thoughts

Published September 16, 2022

The following is an amended version of the Sept. 16 Daily Contrarian. This briefing and accompanying podcast are released to premium subscribers each market day morning by 0700. To subscribe, visit our Substack.

Things went from bad to worse after the close yesterday, with a profit warning from FedEx (FDX). The company blamed macroeconomic weakness in Asia and Europe. Perhaps more importantly, its CEO told CNBC he expects a worldwide recession to ensue imminently. FedEx stock dropped by 20% overnight and continued to fall after the open.

What FedEx is saying is disconcerting on a number of levels. But a little perspective is required. First, it’s worth keeping in mind that companies are quick to blame extraneous factors when things don’t go their way. Okay, FedEx is certainly in a good position to speak to economic realities and there may very well be a lot of truth to them.

FedEx plane. Source: Wiki

But let’s not forget that the consumer data in the U.S. is (so far at least) not exactly confirming these reports. Maybe FedEx is in a better position where these numbers are concerned. Or maybe they’re just losing market share (like, hello, Amazon?) and looking for a boogeyman? Let’s not forget that these warnings used to be a regular occurrence from FedEx.

None of this is to say that the overall economic prospects are rosy. You have the Federal Reserve hellbent on raising interest rates to ward off inflation, supply chain issues, war in Europe, etc. etc. Those variables should come into play before too long whether we want them to or not.

As for FedEx, the company may face more secular concerns with its business. The stock appears cheap after this sell-off. But profits and cashflows appear to be a concern and yeah, market share. Is anybody even looking at that?

Not investment advice. Do your own research. Make your own decisions.

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