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Season 2, Episode 19, Transcribed: Picking Spots in Interest Rate, Volatility Markets With Chris Nicholson

Published July 19, 2020

Moderator 0:02
Welcome to the Contrarian Investor Podcast. We give voice to those who challenge a prevailing sentiment in global financial markets. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this podcast should be taken as investment advice. Guests were not compensated for their appearance, nor do they supply payment in order to appear. Individuals on this podcast may hold positions in the securities that are discussed. Listeners are urged to educate themselves and make their own decisions. Now, here’s your host, Mr. Nathaniel E. Baker.

Nathaniel E. Baker 0:36
Chris Nicholson, independent Portfolio Manager. based here in New York, you have a long career most recently at the hedge fund Iron Harbor Capital. And you have a pretty broad cross disciplinary look at assets and geographies. You did a stint in China I know, which I think is valuable now in the present day, considering all the volatility that we’ve seen, and everything that’s happened just from from the COVID crisis alone, but there are other broad forces at work. So maybe we could just start and just for you to get your, to get your views on the market on economies, and how you see things.

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Season 2, Episode 21: Prepare for the ‘L-Shaped’ Recovery

Published June 30, 2020

With David Neuhauser, Livermore Partners

David Neuhauser of Livermore Partners joins the podcast to discuss his expectation of a “L-shaped” economic recovery and corresponding sideways market activity in the years to come. 

There are still opportunities for investors. Here Neuhauser is bullish on certain companies tied to hard assets like oil and copper.

Content:

  • The “best days” of the market rally have likely passed (3:00), expect more rangebound markets in the short run (4:24);
  • What this period of low growth means for markets in the medium term (8:16);
  • What it means to be a contrarian today (9:39);
  • Background on the guest (12:11);
  • How he spends his time in terms of activist situations (17:40);
  • More specifics on opportunities in energy markets. Hint: it’s not in shale (20:31);
  • Concerns about the demand picture? (24:09);
  • There will be a “massive reset” in markets and fundamentals will take hold, causing “further grinding” to the downside, especially amid high-priced securities (26:45);
  • Neuhauser’s process for finding opportunities (27:46).

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 2, Episode 16: Chinese Economic Reforms Are Already a Thing of the Past, With Dexter Roberts

Published May 20, 2020

The author of “The Myth of Chinese Capitalism” discusses the ramifications of his thesis

Dexter Roberts joins the podcast to discuss his book “The Myth of Chinese Capitalism.”

In Roberts’ view, economic reforms have already been curtailed under current political leadership. China’s middle class, which has grown almost exponentially in recent decades, remains limited mostly to large coastal cities. The rural countryside, which still represents half the country’s population, remains well below the middle class — and is stuck there, in part due to outdated demographic policies.

The options for Chinese policymakers are limited. They have so far not managed to spread the wealth effects of their “pivot” to a services-based economy, and may have even exacerbated the problem. This all has wide-ranging consequences: for China, for western companies, and for the world.

Content Segments:

  • The first myth: capitalism as short hand for economic reforms (5:39)
  • The second key myth: the middle class will inexorably continue to grow larger (6:35)
  • The global supply-chain diversification, started several years ago and exacerbated by COVID-19, is effectively ending China’s “factory to the world” model (9:21)
  • Authorities’ options are very limited (10:45)
  • Where does this leave Chinese consumers? The days of western companies expanding sales through the growth of China’s middle class are gone (13:10)
  • Background on the gust (20:15)
  • What might the future of China hold? (25:09) The possibility of social unrest (27:14)
  • Brief discussion of Hong Kong: “Don’t think that the protests are over.” (30:22)

Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

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