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Short-Term Treasuries: The Place to Be (Szn 5, Episode 28)Podcast episode cover art feat Jared Dillian, Daily Dirt Nap

Short-Term Treasuries: The Place to Be (Szn 5, Episode 28)

Published December 5, 2023

Feat Jared Dillian, Daily Dirt Nap

This podcast episode was recorded Nov. 29, 2023 and made available to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast.

Jared Dillian of the Daily Dirt Nap joins the podcast to discuss his bullish views on short-term Treasuries and less optimistic outlook for the US economy. He also discusses his work as an author and views on disparate issues facing society. 

Note: The podcast episode contains some mature language.

Content Highlights

  • The ‘soft landing’ scenario appears to have become the base case. Dillian doesn’t quite buy that (1:37);
  • To be bullish on short-term Treasuries one needs to believe the Fed is going to cut rates. That is imminent (4:26);
  • Addressing the inflation bogeyman. The risk has maybe receded over the short term, but what about a return over the medium term? There is historical precedent for this from the last time inflation was a serious force in the US… (9:37);
  • Background on the guest and a broad discussion of his time at Lehman Brothers (including its downfall), working on Wall Street, career paths, education, and more…(15:48)

More About the Guest

Mention this podcast for a generous discount on the Daily Dirt Nap!

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Investor Confidence Is Fast Approaching ‘Invulnerable Extremes’ (Szn 5, Ep 19)Cover Art: Contrarian Investor Podcast Season 5 Episode 19

Investor Confidence Is Fast Approaching ‘Invulnerable Extremes’ (Szn 5, Ep 19)

Published July 27, 2023

With Peter Atwater

This podcast episode was made availableto premium subscribers on July 25 without ads or announcements. There are many other benefits to being a premium subscriber. Sign up through Supercast or our Substack.

Peter Atwater joins the podcast to discuss the ideas from his latest book, “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path From Chaos to Clarity.” Crucially, he tells listeners why investor confidence is today fast approaching the ‘invulnerable extreme’ that indicates a top in markets…

Content Highlights

  • Investor preferences change dramatically with their confidence levels. Generally high confidence corresponds to preference for abstract items (NFTs, cryptos) whilst low confidence yields a preference for more practical things (2:48)
  • Yes, magazine covers can be a reliable contrarian indicator (5:52);
  • Investor confidence levels are rapidly approaching the ‘invulnerable extreme’ with AI hype and a bull market for luxury goods (10:08);
  • How to deal with the question of timing, and signs to look for when seeking to identify a top (15:17);
  • When it comes to cryptos, the most recent mania has passed and the prospects of another round is remote (18:16);
  • Background on the guest (24:10);
  • Investor mania is not defined so much by overconfidence but invulnerability (27:37);
  • Where does this leave investors in terms of asset allocation? Introducing ‘sentiment diversification’ (30:08);
  • Natural gas may be at an inflection point that presages a really (32:19).

More From Peter Atwater

Not investment advice.

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MoreInvestor Confidence Is Fast Approaching ‘Invulnerable Extremes’ (Szn 5, Ep 19)
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AI is Overhyped as an Investment, Will Only Worsen Inequality (Season 5, Episode 14)Coverart, Season 5, Episode 14 feat Simon Johnson

AI is Overhyped as an Investment, Will Only Worsen Inequality (Season 5, Episode 14)

Published May 31, 2023

Feat Simon Johnson, co-author, ‘Power and Progress, Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity’

MIT Economist Simon Johnson joins the podcast to discuss his book, ‘Power and Progress, Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity’ and specifically why artificial intelligence is likely overhyped, and that not just from an investment perspective.

Content Highlights

  • Artificial intelligence’s default trajectory is about machine intelligence, code for replacing people with machines. Historically, this has not brought great things (1:21);
  • Indeed technological progress has not always benefited everybody, but just a small group at the top. Today’s advancements are no different (5:11);
  • Don’t expect a boost to business either. Productivity gains should be limited (9:17);
  • Some of the dangers of Chat GPT and Google’s Bard that is driving most business development around AI (20:12);
  • Background on the guest (24:26);
  • Thoughts on the current market environment and its potential to spill over into crisis (27:43).

More From Simon Johnson

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MoreAI is Overhyped as an Investment, Will Only Worsen Inequality (Season 5, Episode 14)
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