Press "Enter" to skip to content

Tag: book author

Investor Confidence Is Fast Approaching ‘Invulnerable Extremes’ (Szn 5, Ep 19)Cover Art: Contrarian Investor Podcast Season 5 Episode 19

Investor Confidence Is Fast Approaching ‘Invulnerable Extremes’ (Szn 5, Ep 19)

Published July 27, 2023

With Peter Atwater

This podcast episode was made availableto premium subscribers on July 25 without ads or announcements. There are many other benefits to being a premium subscriber. Sign up through Supercast or our Substack.

Peter Atwater joins the podcast to discuss the ideas from his latest book, “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path From Chaos to Clarity.” Crucially, he tells listeners why investor confidence is today fast approaching the ‘invulnerable extreme’ that indicates a top in markets…

Content Highlights

  • Investor preferences change dramatically with their confidence levels. Generally high confidence corresponds to preference for abstract items (NFTs, cryptos) whilst low confidence yields a preference for more practical things (2:48)
  • Yes, magazine covers can be a reliable contrarian indicator (5:52);
  • Investor confidence levels are rapidly approaching the ‘invulnerable extreme’ with AI hype and a bull market for luxury goods (10:08);
  • How to deal with the question of timing, and signs to look for when seeking to identify a top (15:17);
  • When it comes to cryptos, the most recent mania has passed and the prospects of another round is remote (18:16);
  • Background on the guest (24:10);
  • Investor mania is not defined so much by overconfidence but invulnerability (27:37);
  • Where does this leave investors in terms of asset allocation? Introducing ‘sentiment diversification’ (30:08);
  • Natural gas may be at an inflection point that presages a really (32:19).

More From Peter Atwater

Not investment advice.

Quick Video Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

MoreInvestor Confidence Is Fast Approaching ‘Invulnerable Extremes’ (Szn 5, Ep 19)
Leave a Comment
AI is Overhyped as an Investment, Will Only Worsen Inequality (Season 5, Episode 14)Coverart, Season 5, Episode 14 feat Simon Johnson

AI is Overhyped as an Investment, Will Only Worsen Inequality (Season 5, Episode 14)

Published May 31, 2023

Feat Simon Johnson, co-author, ‘Power and Progress, Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity’

MIT Economist Simon Johnson joins the podcast to discuss his book, ‘Power and Progress, Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity’ and specifically why artificial intelligence is likely overhyped, and that not just from an investment perspective.

Content Highlights

  • Artificial intelligence’s default trajectory is about machine intelligence, code for replacing people with machines. Historically, this has not brought great things (1:21);
  • Indeed technological progress has not always benefited everybody, but just a small group at the top. Today’s advancements are no different (5:11);
  • Don’t expect a boost to business either. Productivity gains should be limited (9:17);
  • Some of the dangers of Chat GPT and Google’s Bard that is driving most business development around AI (20:12);
  • Background on the guest (24:26);
  • Thoughts on the current market environment and its potential to spill over into crisis (27:43).

More From Simon Johnson

Quick Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

MoreAI is Overhyped as an Investment, Will Only Worsen Inequality (Season 5, Episode 14)
Leave a Comment

Author of ‘SBF’ on his Book’s Subject, What Undid FTX, Future of Cryptos (Season 5, Episode 11)

Published May 4, 2023

Brady Dale joins the podcast to discuss his book, ‘SBF: How the FTX bankruptcy unwound crypto’s very bad good guy’ and offer his thoughts on the present and future of cryptocurrencies.

Content Highlights

  • Who is Sam Bankman-Fried exactly? Is he a crook? (Yeah, probably) Misunderstood? The author has known SBF for awhile and states that his subject was initially motivated by effective altruism, or EA … (1:27);
  • FTX was undone by its special treatment of Alameda. If it wasn’t for that, “Sam would still be on the news all the time” today (10:54);
  • Bankman-Fried’s apparent misreading of crypto cycles led to ill-timed bets after Bitcoin hit an all-time high in November 2021 (14:26);
  • In one of SBF’s last conversations with the author, SBF claims he is unlikely to get a fair trial due to being proverbially hung already in the courts of opinion (17:59);
  • Where does SBF rank among other financial market fraudsters? Perhaps Long Term Capital Management is the closest comparison… (23:52);
  • Background on the guest, including what got him to write the book on SBF (34:03);
  • Cryptos should eventually become a normal part of the economy. In many ways the story of SBF vindicates this (38:26);
  • The world only really needs three blockchains: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin (44:28);
  • Crypto regulation was supposed to have happened already, but it all seems to be talk (49:58).

More From Brady Dale

Quick Video Highlights From our YouTube Channel

MoreAuthor of ‘SBF’ on his Book’s Subject, What Undid FTX, Future of Cryptos (Season 5, Episode 11)
Leave a Comment