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Big Week Ahead: Earnings, GDP, Fed Interest Rate Decision

Published July 25, 2022

The following is an amended form of the July 25 Daily Contrarian. This briefing and accompanying podcast are released to premium subscribers each market day morning by 0700. To subscribe, visit our Substack.

We are staring at a three-headed beast this week: Earnings, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, and economic data.

Three-headed beast. Promo image for the original Showa iteration of King Ghidorah. Source: Toho Co via Wiki
Promo image for the original Showa iteration of King Ghidorah.
Source: Toho Co via Wiki

The Fed interest rate decision is Wednesday. Second-quarter GDP is Thursday. The most important economic data release isn’t until Friday with the Personal Consumption Expenditures, aka the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

The FOMC and Q2 GDP will get the lion’s share of attention. Both could turn out to be non-events. GDP is a trailing indicator and anyway this is just the first estimate of Q2 GDP. Yeah if it prints negative that will be two consecutive quarters, which technically means we were/are in recession, blah blah. Doesn’t change the fact that this tells us something which has already happened. As such it is unlikely to move markets very much.

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Bearish Indicators Abound, With Downside Risks for Stocks: Ayesha Tariq (Szn 4, Ep. 15)

Published May 31, 2022

Ayesha Tariq of Keystone Consulting joins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss her bearish views on the global economy and on stock markets, what investment options she prefers right now, and why work-from-home will not persist (or at least not at current levels).

Content Highlights

  • The idea of a ‘Fed pivot’ away from higher rates is baseless. The Fed has no choice but to raise rates (3:01);
  • What about inflation having peaked? Won’t that remove some pressure from the Fed? (8:35);
  • Unemployment is due to rise, with companies soon having no choice but to lay off workers — but this won’t stop the Fed either (11:28);
  • Markets had a good week. Did we have the bottom already? (13:57);
  • What about commodities? A potential bright spot due to structural issues? (15:32);
  • Background on the guest (21:06);
  • What are some of the best options for investors in light of all this? (23:19);
  • Real estate investment trusts are one good option, especially commercial real estate. Work-from-home was a phase that will be scaled back soon (26:25);

More Information on the Guest

Not intended as investment advice.

Quick Highlights from our YouTube Channel

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