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The Contrarian Investor Podcast Posts

Shares of Akazoo, Silvercorp Sell Off On Reports From Inaugural Contrarian Investor Virtual Podcast

Published April 21, 2020

The Contrarian Investor Podcast, in partnership with ValueWalk, hosted the inaugural virtual conference before market open on Monday, April 20. A recording of the event is available on our new YouTube channel (and viewable at the bottom of this page).

Shares of Akazoo sold off sharply after the presentation from Gabriele Grego of Quintessential Capital Management that kicked off the event. “We believe Akazoo is a scheme orchestrated by management to profit while egregiously deceiving investors,” Grego said during the presentation. “We see signs of very suspicious accounting manipulation,” including cash inconsistencies and “a total lack of income taxes.”

Update: On May 21, an Akazoo special committee of independent directors announced that management and associates “participated in sophisticated multi-year fraud.”

Silvercorp Metals also sold off in the pre-market after the presentation by Nathan Anderson of Hindenburg Research.

Maj Soueidan of GeoInvesting LLC, a previous guest on this podcast, said he was bullish on shares of Intouch Insight. The customer experience company’s stock has sold off after coronavirus, which Soueidan says is an opportunity to build a position. He has a target of about $3 for the stock, which was trading around 27 cents a share at the time of his presentation.

Matt Zabloski, another guest on the podcast, gave the final presentation of the event, saying he was long shares of Vale, a Brazilian iron ore producer.

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Season 2, Episode 12: Market ‘Melt Up’ Will Continue Until Late Summer Before Onset of ‘Deflationary Bust’

Published April 14, 2020

With David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors

David Hunter, chief macro strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, has for some time predicted a final “melt up” stage of the market cycle before markets crash.

This stage is now underway as markets recover from an initial sell-off caused by the coronavirus (which Hunter admits he did not and could not have predicted).

What comes next is a “secular top that I expect to be the high-water mark for decades to come,” he says. After markets peak around late summer, a “global deflationary bust” will ensue, with as much as 80% downside for equities.

Prefer to read the transcript of this talk? Become a premium subscriber to get access. Sign up now with a special discount that will expire soon.

Content: 

  • Target of 4,000 for the S&P as part of “the final melt up” (2:23)
  • The downside target. Forget the “retest narrative” in the short term (10:39). Markets should drop by 80% from the top (11:58)
  • Unprecedented leverage doesn’t leave policymakers much time (14:09)
  • Background on David: 47 years in financial markets (18:46)
  • The current crisis in historical context (26:35)
  • Deflation allows for liquidity injections. Until it creates inflation (32:01)
  • Discussing the potential political and social fallout from the coming economic crisis (36:12)
  • How deflation will eventually turn to inflation (40:20)
  • Discussion of the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status (45:56)
  • Bullish outlook for gold and silver (51:37)

Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 2, Episode 11: Bargain Hunting in Frontier Markets, With Hedi Ben Mlouka of FIM Partners

Published April 7, 2020

Frontier markets are at greater risk of coronavirus fallout, but there are opportunities

Hedi Ben Mlouka joins the podcast to discuss his views of frontier markets in light of the coronavirus crisis.

Ben Mlouka has been investing in frontier markets for more than a decade as CIO and CEO of Dubai-based FIM Partners. He sees the asset class in general as being at greater risk of being impacted by fallout from the COVID-19 epidemic. The political risks are particularly vexxing.

Content segments timestamp:

  • Is this a good time to be investing in frontier markets? (6:03)
  • The first part of the equation: Frontier markets are less prepared for the coronavirus than developed markets (7:05)
  • The impact will be larger from a healthcare perspective while the policy response can be expected to be weaker, especially in fragile economies (9:56)
  • The crisis will expose the “downside of globalization,” precluding a “V-shaped” recovery (11:30)
  • Where are the opportunities? Oil importers like Pakistan and Egypt can benefit (15:26)
  • Speaking oil, forget about the demand shock for now. Oil prices should recover to $50 or $60 per barrel (18:57)
  • Beyond the macro picture, industries with access to capital are preferred. Avoid travel, hospitality, banks. (21:07)
  • Healthcare, education, retail, and consumer discretionary companies should recover over the long term (23:56)
  • Political risk is a major concern for many countries in frontier markets. Who’s most vulnerable? (31:09)

Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

More information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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