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The Contrarian Investor Podcast Posts

Watch for the Bounce in Equities: Brent Kochuba, Spot Gamma (Szn 4, Ep 7)

Published March 10, 2022

Brent Kochuba of Spot Gamma joins the podcast to discuss his view that there will likely be an equities rally into the March 18 options expiration.

This podcast was recorded Wednesday afternoon, March 9, 2022, and made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber today by visiting Contrarian.Supercast.com or our Substack. There are many benefits beyond getting podcasts a few days (or more) early and not having to deal with annoying ads or announcements.

Content Highlights

  • Stocks have been selling off with the Nasdaq now officially in a bear market. But the guest is short-term bullish for reasons that can be traced to market makers hedging counterparty risk (2:39);
  • What about all the uncertainty with Russia-Ukraine? (5:57);
  • Stocks are up since the start of the Russian invasion on Feb. 24, likely because markets were hedged going in due to Fed tightening concerns (9:28);
  • What to make of the March 9 rally? A brief primer on gamma, vanna, and charm aka delta decay (11:02);
  • Similar gamma squeezes caused rallies in the past around options expiry (15:20);
  • Background on the guest (21:31);
  • The hedges investors have put on ahead of the FOMC meeting next week should lead to more risk-off. The lower bound for the S&P 500 is 4,100 (24:36);
  • Recent days have seen a change in options flow: Nvidia (NVDA) and crypto names such as Coinbase (COIN) have benefited along with Amazon (AMZN) and the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) (26:50);
  • Liquidity is important and recent months have seen some of it leave the system (30:06).

More Information on the Guest

Video Highlights

MoreWatch for the Bounce in Equities: Brent Kochuba, Spot Gamma (Szn 4, Ep 7)
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Szn 4, Ep 6: The ‘Bad Times Are Already Here,’ With Acquirers Funds’ Tobias Carlisle

Published March 2, 2022

Tobias Carlisle of Acquirers Funds rejoins the podcast to discuss the stock market’s latest dramatic reversal, this time over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and why investors may be a bit too bullish at present…

Content Highlights

  • How to take the huge reversal last week with Russia-Ukraine? (3:11)
  • Every war starts with “the boys will be home by Christmas,” but most tend to drag on longer than anticipated. Sometimes a lot longer… (5:13);
  • Growth stocks have been in correction territory for some time. Are they in a bear market? Probably… (8:52);
  • The interest rate cycle has not started tightening but inflation has the Fed caught between a rock and a hard place (15:53);
  • Energy and energy stocks are still cheap. Then there are defense contractors. Lockheed Martin (LMT) has benefited from Russia-Ukraine and Carlisle is a holder… (21:25);
  • Facebook aka Meta (FB) is also cheap (23:20);
  • Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs: Dead as Disco (30:12);
  • The aim of investing is to survive the bad times and they are “probably here” (37:18).

More From the Guest

MoreSzn 4, Ep 6: The ‘Bad Times Are Already Here,’ With Acquirers Funds’ Tobias Carlisle
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Contrarian Calls, Revisited: Liz Hall’s Bullish Calls on Games Workshop, Nintendo

Published March 1, 2022

Liz Hall said she was interested in Games Workshop (GMWKF) and Nintendo (NTDOY), in a September 2020 visit to the podcast.

Hall said she discovered Games Workshop, which manufactures Warhammer figurines and hobby collections, and knew she had to invest “because the people were so passionate.”

She saw similar potential in Nintendo (NTDOY) and purchased the stock at approximately $30 per share.

“I saw Nintendo Switch was coming out and everyone I knew who was into video games was raving about this thing,” she said.

Hall said she goes down “rabbit holes” on YouTube and Reddit learning about topics and cultures that interest her to find investment opportunities.

“I think there’s a lot of [investing opportunities] if you just chill and catch the vibe of what’s going on on the internet.”

What Happened

MoreContrarian Calls, Revisited: Liz Hall’s Bullish Calls on Games Workshop, Nintendo
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