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The Contrarian Investor Podcast Posts

Szn 4, Ep. 1: Barry Knapp on Uncertainty Shocks, Inflation, Economic Growth, and What Else to Expect in 2022

Published January 7, 2022

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his 2022 outlook for the economy and markets. He is broadly optimistic on the former, but less enthusiastic about the latter — at least in the first half of the year — with strong possibility of ‘uncertainty shocks,’ especially around Fed events (sound familiar?) There is also some interesting discussion around interest rates, inflation, and China, among others.

Content Highlights

(Spotify users can link to the start of the section by clicking on the timestamp)

  • A lot has changed in a year, though probably nothing quite as much as the inflation outlook (3:04);
  • Markets and economics should diverge significantly in the first half of the year (4:51);
  • The Federal Reserve is due to embark on a rate-tightening cycle, which should be negative for markets but will be net-neutral, or perhaps even positive for the economy (8:00);
  • Inflation is running hot, but the guest has done some deep research on similar historical epochs and finds the concern less pressing than most (17:20);
  • The key level for inflation is 4% — if the CPI exceeds it consistently there could be trouble. Link to the Fed paper referenced here (21:33);
  • Still, there is a strong possibility for ‘uncertainty shocks’ in the first half of the year (29:52);
  • Finally, China: Reasons to be bearish. Very bearish (34:58).

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Szn 3, Ep. 29: Causes for Optimism in 2022, with Ryan Worch

Published December 21, 2021

Ryan Worch of Worch Capital rejoins the podcast to provide his outlook on stocks for 2022. Spoiler alert: He’s bullish. With certain qualifications. Worch mentions specific securities in the latter half of the episode.

Nothing here is intended as investment advice.

Content Highlights

  • Worch’s contrarian call: We’re still in a secular bull market (4:14);
  • Underneath the surface there has been “some very real destruction in the speculative part of the markets.” Why this is happening (6:05);
  • Is there any hopes for the Cathie Wood names, meme stocks, cryptos, and NFTs? (9:25);
  • Many people are bearish. Too many (15:33);
  • How Worch Capital is positioning its portfolio and some favorite names (20:45);
  • A brief discussion about inflation (28:09).
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Szn 3, Ep. 28: The Market Doesn’t Care About Omicron or Inflation

Published December 6, 2021

With Enrique Abeyta, Empire Financial Research

This episode uses mature language. Discretion is advised for listeners that may be sensitive to this type of thing.

Enrique Abeyta of Empire Financial Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the omicron strain of Covid-19 and inflation, and share his excitement about the metaverse.

Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, could become the world’s first $5 trillion enterprise.

Not intended as investment advice. 

Content Highlights

  • The market didn’t go down because of omicron or because of what the Fed chair said. What caused the selling instead (5:09);
  • Omicron is not the first Covid strain. It won’t be the last. Society and the economy have been able to deal with the variants (6:28);
  • Inflation is another boogey man (8:10);
  • The spike in the VIX is more noteworthy — and a bullish indicator for stocks (12:39);
  • What about gold? (16:56);
  • The metaverse: It’s already here. People just don’t realize it yet (24:07);
  • Meta, the stock formerly known as Facebook, is as good a way as any to profit from these developments (27:29);
  • Oil and gas “could go to the moon” (39:52).

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