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The Contrarian Investor Podcast Posts

Author of ‘SBF’ on his Book’s Subject, What Undid FTX, Future of Cryptos (Season 5, Episode 11)

Published May 4, 2023

Brady Dale joins the podcast to discuss his book, ‘SBF: How the FTX bankruptcy unwound crypto’s very bad good guy’ and offer his thoughts on the present and future of cryptocurrencies.

Content Highlights

  • Who is Sam Bankman-Fried exactly? Is he a crook? (Yeah, probably) Misunderstood? The author has known SBF for awhile and states that his subject was initially motivated by effective altruism, or EA … (1:27);
  • FTX was undone by its special treatment of Alameda. If it wasn’t for that, “Sam would still be on the news all the time” today (10:54);
  • Bankman-Fried’s apparent misreading of crypto cycles led to ill-timed bets after Bitcoin hit an all-time high in November 2021 (14:26);
  • In one of SBF’s last conversations with the author, SBF claims he is unlikely to get a fair trial due to being proverbially hung already in the courts of opinion (17:59);
  • Where does SBF rank among other financial market fraudsters? Perhaps Long Term Capital Management is the closest comparison… (23:52);
  • Background on the guest, including what got him to write the book on SBF (34:03);
  • Cryptos should eventually become a normal part of the economy. In many ways the story of SBF vindicates this (38:26);
  • The world only really needs three blockchains: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin (44:28);
  • Crypto regulation was supposed to have happened already, but it all seems to be talk (49:58).

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3 Stock Picks, the Case for Investing in Malaysia: Aaron Pek (Szn 5, Epsd 10)

Published April 25, 2023

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. To track a partial portfolio of Value Investing Substack, click here.

Aaron Pek of Value Investing Substack joins the podcast to discuss his bullish outlook on three individual stocks and more generally the investment case for Malaysia.

Content Highlights

  • First idea: Intel (INTC) and why it can compete with Samsung (SSNLF) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) (2:33);
  • Some additional background on Intel and its business case (4:49);
  • Bears say INTC has years until it can catch up to TSMC, but Intel has the necessary machinery to bridge the gap sooner (10:10);
  • Second idea: Occidental Petroleum (OXY), a unique oil play beloved by Warren Buffett (15:23);
  • Background on the guest (23:57);
  • Third idea: Hibiscus Petroleum (HIPEF), whose management team the guest views as the Warren Buffett management team of southeast Asian oil and gas (28:13);
  • The case for Malaysia: a view from the ground (32:29);
  • There is an ETF, iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (EWM) which tracks Malaysian stocks. Discussion of Malaysia’s geopolitical place between China and the US (34:39);
  • China’s lost decade (44:11).

Not investment advice! Do your own research, make your own decisions.

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Risk/Reward Still Skewed Toward Risk: Mike Singleton, Invictus Research (Szn 5, Ep 9)

Published April 11, 2023

This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, April 6, with an actionable highlights clip previewing the following day’s non-farm payrolls released to premium subscribers that same day. The full podcast episode was then released to premium subscribers a day later. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast.

Mike Singleton of Invictus Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his pessimistic outlook for the economy, why he’s concerned about credit risk, and why the Federal Reserve should end up cutting rates before too long.

Content Highlights

  • The outlook for risk assets is still not constructive (2:40);
  • Fed rate hikes are very close to a peak, if not there already (4:43);
  • Economic conditions point to stubborn inflation (7:09);
  • Inflation may not need to return to the Fed’s 2% target for there to be rate cuts (11:00);
  • The outlook for commodities prices is not particularly constructive either (15:59);
  • What to make of the banks? (21:14);
  • One leading economic indicator that Invictus likes, which is overlooked (or ignored) by the market at large (22:30);
  • The backdrop is still positive for short-term bonds (24:28);
  • Leading indicators for the yield curve include bank lending standards, which right now suggest a steepening… (26:13).

More About the Guest

Not investment advice.

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