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Hard Landing for the US Economy, Mild Recession to Spare Emerging Markets (Szn 5, Epsd 23)Episode 23 coverart feat Ayesha Tariq

Hard Landing for the US Economy, Mild Recession to Spare Emerging Markets (Szn 5, Epsd 23)

Published September 4, 2023

With Ayesha Tariq, MacroVisor

This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 29 with a ‘highlight’ clip of the most actionable insights released to premium subscribers that same day. Premium subscribers then received the full episode — without ads or interruptions — the following day, on Aug. 30.

Ayesha Tariq, co-founder of MacroVisor, rejoins the podcast to discuss why she is expecting a hard landing for the US economy along with other contrarian views she has about the Federal Reserve and global financial markets.

Content Highlights

  • The ‘soft landing’ scenario has effectively become the base case. Why that’s wrong (1:32);
  • Unlike many (most?) recessions, this one will not be preceded by a Fed-induced credit event. For this reason, it will be milder (4:44);
  • The Federal Reserve is likely to hike at its next meeting on Sept. 20. That will be its last hike this cycle (8:53);
  • The US downturn will not necessarily lead to a global recession (12:58);
  • The outlook for commodities, specifically copper, is bullish despite the bearish economic outlook (18:48);
  • Rate hikes might be off the table, but quantitative tightening could still be incoming in 2024 (23:45);
  • New segment: Listener questions. Whoever’s questions are read wins a free Contrarian mug. First up: what to make of Nvidia and AI (26:36);
  • Next listener question: what to look for in bank earnings? (31:42);
  • One area of the stock market where the guest is particularly bullish (36:35).

For more about the guest, visit her website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X.

Not investment advice.

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Transcript

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Diamonds as an Asset Class: Concepts, Contrarian, Catalysts (Szn 5, Ep 22)cover art podcast Cormac Kinney

Diamonds as an Asset Class: Concepts, Contrarian, Catalysts (Szn 5, Ep 22)

Published August 30, 2023

With Cormac Kinney, Diamond Standard

Cormac Kinney, founder and CEO of Diamond Standard, joins the podcast to discuss the concept of diamonds as an asset class: why they haven’t become an investable commodity like other precious metals, how that may be changing, and what investors can expect in terms of correlation to other assets and alpha.

Content Highlights

  • Why haven’t diamonds become an investable asset class like precious metals or other commodities? (1:11);
  • Some of the economics behind diamond production and why supply is dropping dramatically (4:45);
  • How Diamond Standard is turning diamonds into a fungible commodity (this is where the bars in the cover photo comes in) (7:55);
  • What are diamonds used for practically, other than jewelry? (11:06);
  • Diamonds’ correlation to other asset classes over time (15:33);
  • Diamond futures are coming. That will introduce much-needed liquidity (21:45);
  • Background on the guest (29:30);

More About the Guest

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Some Disparate ‘Best Ideas’ for the Rest of 2023: Brooker Belcourt (Szn 5, Epsd 21)Cover art featuring Brooker Belcourt

Some Disparate ‘Best Ideas’ for the Rest of 2023: Brooker Belcourt (Szn 5, Epsd 21)

Published August 23, 2023

This episode was recorded on Aug. 15 and released to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber here.

Brooker Belcourt, founder of Covey.io, rejoins the podcast to discuss the three-pronged consensus that the investment platform’s best analysts are picking up right now and the 20 names that have emerged…

(Not investment advice).

Content Highlights

  • What are the best Covey analysts picking up right now? (1:37)
  • The platform’s 20 best positions are split into four buckets: growth winners like Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA), healthcare (three names including biopharma), ‘high-quality’ names like Autozone (AZO) and Disney (DIS), and volatility expressed through the levered ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) (4:55);
  • What to make of the long volatility bet? (9:40);
  • Equally interesting is the type of exposure that is absent from the best 20: no crypto, no retail stocks, nothing international… (16:04);

More About the Guest

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