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Category: Transcripts

Season 2, Episode 22, Transcribed: Time to Build a Position in Semiconductor Manufacturers?

Moderator 0:08
Welcome to the Contrarian Investor Podcast, we give voice to those who challenge a prevailing sentiment in global financial markets. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this podcast should be taken as investment advice. Guests were not compensated for the appearance, nor did they supply payment in order to appear. Individuals on this podcast may hold positions in the securities that are discussed. Listeners are urged to educate themselves and make their own decisions. Now, here’s your host, Mr. Nathaniel E. Baker.

Nathaniel E. Baker 2:03
Siddarth Singhai of Ironhold Capital hedge fund here in New York. Thank you so much for joining the Contrarian Investor Podcast today. You’re here because you have a some views that are that are quite contrary, affecting a couple of different sectors of the market and of the economy. And these are two sectors here, auto manufacturing, and semiconductors that are cyclical. And if you’ve been paying any attention at all, to the economy, as we all know, the COVID crisis has kind of exacerbated and maybe accelerated the end of the business cycle, some would say to where a recession is effectively now, just just about a priced in, and the question very much becomes how we can get to grow again, In the future, and how long it will take before we attain any levels of growth that would positively affect these cyclical industries. Yeah. So from that perspective, it’s quite contrary. And I’m quite happy to have you on and talk a little bit about this. So let’s maybe start there and tell me why you like these particular industries.

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Season 2, Episode 21, Transcribed: Prepare for the ‘L-Shaped’ Recovery, With David Neuhauser

Nathaniel E. Baker 0:36
Okay. David Neuhauser of Livermore Partners. Thank you so much for joining us on the podcast today. The economic recovery, the “V shape,” is effectively priced into markets. As we record this on Thursday, June 25. The S&P 500 is up well over 30% off its lows. It seems that there is very little that can upend this buying mentality on Wall Street from investors, whether those investors are people of the Robin Hood crowd or more of the larger institutions, which is another question for another day. But your views here are a lot more bearish. And you are anticipating an L shaped recovery, which is a bit of a misnomer because if it is an L shape, then it doesn’t really recover, does it? So, I’d be really interested in having you lay out your views here for us.

David Neuhauser 1:42
Yeah, for sure, Nate, and thanks for having me. I mean, the way you look at it as you have to still look at you know, markets is just like economies run in cycles. And if you look at the past decade, as we’ve known it’s been predicated on low interest rates which has caused you know, By central banks that has caused, obviously economic development and along with tax cuts, and and that’s where we’ve seen the massive amounts of stimulus, which has fueled growth for a number of years. All that’s great. We obviously seen now with covid 19, that that’s been up ended. And the fight that of course, we’ve seen massive economic stimulus from both government and the Federal Reserve. And that, of course, is helping propel markets. But I do think there’s two, you know, there’s two things you have to look at. One is the economy, as they say, and there’s one that there’s the markets, and from an economic standpoint, even with vaccine, which, you know, at a bull case, I would say you’re talking about 12 months or 18 months from now, you’re still going to look at sustainable, higher levels of unemployment, you’re still going to see a lot lower economic activity, you’re still going to see no just less overall activity in the economy in terms of retail in terms of Travel and Leisure in terms of purchases, and When you include that all in to where we’ve been to where we are today, and where we’re going, you have to look at it and say, you know, big picture, you know, we most likely have seen the best days behind us in the past, you know, five or 10 years and going forward, it’s gonna be a rough road.

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Season 2, Episode 19, Transcribed: Picking Spots in Interest Rate, Volatility Markets With Chris Nicholson

Moderator 0:02
Welcome to the Contrarian Investor Podcast. We give voice to those who challenge a prevailing sentiment in global financial markets. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this podcast should be taken as investment advice. Guests were not compensated for their appearance, nor do they supply payment in order to appear. Individuals on this podcast may hold positions in the securities that are discussed. Listeners are urged to educate themselves and make their own decisions. Now, here’s your host, Mr. Nathaniel E. Baker.

Nathaniel E. Baker 0:36
Chris Nicholson, independent Portfolio Manager. based here in New York, you have a long career most recently at the hedge fund Iron Harbor Capital. And you have a pretty broad cross disciplinary look at assets and geographies. You did a stint in China I know, which I think is valuable now in the present day, considering all the volatility that we’ve seen, and everything that’s happened just from from the COVID crisis alone, but there are other broad forces at work. So maybe we could just start and just for you to get your, to get your views on the market on economies, and how you see things.

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