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Fed’s Next Move, Trump 2.0, Opportunities in AI, Argentina (Szn 6, Epsd 15)Podcast episode cover art featuring James Fishback

Fed’s Next Move, Trump 2.0, Opportunities in AI, Argentina (Szn 6, Epsd 15)

Published September 10, 2024

With James Fishback, Azorio Partners

James Fishback, founder of Azoria Partners, joins the podcast to discuss the Fed’s shift in monetary policy, opportunities afforded by another Trump administration, why AI hype is real, and a host of other issues.

James Fishback, founder of Azoria Partners, joins the podcast to discuss the Fed’s shift in monetary policy, opportunities afforded by another Trump administration, why AI hype is real, and a host of other issues.

This podcast was recorded on Sept. 4 and was being made available to premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available here.

NB: The guest is outspoken on certain political beliefs discussed here. These views are not necessarily shared by the host or the Contrarian Investor Podcast more generally.

Content Highlights

  • The Federal Reserve is expect to cut 200 basis points off of interest rates when all is said and done. The reality should fall well short of that measure… (1:37);
  • The US is economy growing in aggregate. Pain points are felt among lower socio-economic classes (4:44);
  • The major change will not come from a major shift in monetary policy but what happens fiscally, with the November election (9:16);
  • How to trade a Republican sweep? There’s an acronym: T-R-U-M-P (10:54);
  • Many companies have taken advantage of cheap labor supplied by illegal immigration. Their stocks will suffer once this is rolled back… (15:31);
  • AI is real. Productivity gains will be massive (17:44);
  • Crypto discussion. The best opportunity for bulls may to bet on lower volatility for Bitcoin… (22:47);
  • Background on the guest (28:33);
  • Azoria’s first ETF will be called the Meritocracy Fund. The strategy (33:38);
  • Another opportunity: Argentina (43:18)

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There’s Still Time to Hedge Tail Risk — At Least for Stocks: Kris Sidial (Szn 4, Ep. 29)

Published October 19, 2022

Kris Sidial of The Ambrus Group joins the podcast to discuss tail-risk hedging: how it works, why it’s important, and how investors can still take advantage of volatility mispricings to protect themselves against further downside — at least in stocks.

Content Highlights

  • What is tail risk hedging? (3:19);
  • Traditional hedges haven’t worked, starting with the 60:40 approach. How might investors hedge stock and bond exposure? (6:15);
  • There are numerous options for investors to protect against downturns. But it’s not always as easy as buying put contracts on indexes (8:24);
  • Variance swaps, one way to compound returns on movements in volatility (10:25);
  • Thoughts on UK pensions and what might have caused issues in that segment of the market (15:27);
  • What investors are doing in this environment in terms of tail-risk hedging — there are still opportunities to hedge (20:02);
  • Background on the guest (30:08);
  • Discussion of systemic risk as a result of the layers of options trades and counterparties: “There is a systemic hazard taking place right now in the derivatives market” (39:32);
  • Speaking of risk, what about the regulatory environment? Are regulators asleep at the switch? Reasons to believe Dodd-Frank is perhaps not as effective as people think.. (43:37)
  • Thoughts on cryptocurrencies (50:01).

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Watch for the Bounce in Equities: Brent Kochuba, Spot Gamma (Szn 4, Ep 7)

Published March 10, 2022

Brent Kochuba of Spot Gamma joins the podcast to discuss his view that there will likely be an equities rally into the March 18 options expiration.

This podcast was recorded Wednesday afternoon, March 9, 2022, and made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber today by visiting Contrarian.Supercast.com or our Substack. There are many benefits beyond getting podcasts a few days (or more) early and not having to deal with annoying ads or announcements.

Content Highlights

  • Stocks have been selling off with the Nasdaq now officially in a bear market. But the guest is short-term bullish for reasons that can be traced to market makers hedging counterparty risk (2:39);
  • What about all the uncertainty with Russia-Ukraine? (5:57);
  • Stocks are up since the start of the Russian invasion on Feb. 24, likely because markets were hedged going in due to Fed tightening concerns (9:28);
  • What to make of the March 9 rally? A brief primer on gamma, vanna, and charm aka delta decay (11:02);
  • Similar gamma squeezes caused rallies in the past around options expiry (15:20);
  • Background on the guest (21:31);
  • The hedges investors have put on ahead of the FOMC meeting next week should lead to more risk-off. The lower bound for the S&P 500 is 4,100 (24:36);
  • Recent days have seen a change in options flow: Nvidia (NVDA) and crypto names such as Coinbase (COIN) have benefited along with Amazon (AMZN) and the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) (26:50);
  • Liquidity is important and recent months have seen some of it leave the system (30:06).

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