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Tag: Ukraine

US Election ‘Black Swans’ Include Significant Chance of Political Violence (Szn 6, Epsd 20)

Published November 1, 2024

With Mike Blyth, Sigma 7

Dr. Mike Blyth of risk services company Sigma7, joins the podcast to discuss ‘unknown unknowns’ facing next week’s US election.

Blyth is a career national security professional, having worked for US and British civil and military operations globally.

This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers that day. To learn about premium subscription options, visit our Substack.

Content Highlights

  • Background on the guest and why he is qualified to speak of all things national and international security (1:42);
  • Main concerns entering the election. External and internal agitators have raised the risk of political violence (4:57);
  • Gaming out the various scenarios. Almost all involve violence, especially if former President Donald Trump is not elected (7:26);
  • The narrative on social media and elsewhere is consistent with what typically presages violence. “It’s a tinderbox. We’re waiting for the flame to be lit” (11:26);
  • What parts of the economy might be most at risk and which might be more resilient (16:49);
  • What about geopolitical risks? (20:42).

For more about the guest, visit the website S7risk.com.

Watch the Recording

Transcript

MoreUS Election ‘Black Swans’ Include Significant Chance of Political Violence (Szn 6, Epsd 20)
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Stock Income Will Be Key for the Next Stage of Financial Market History (Szn 6, Epsd 5)Episode coverart feat Daniel Peris

Stock Income Will Be Key for the Next Stage of Financial Market History (Szn 6, Epsd 5)

Published March 27, 2024

With Daniel Peris

Financial market historian Daniel Peris joins the podcast to discuss his latest book, The Ownership Dividend, and why the next stage of the investing cycle will be marked by renewed focus on dividends and cash flows.

Note: The host’s mic was a little ‘stuffy’ for this episode but the guest comes in loud and clear!

Content Highlights

  • Cashflows have become ignored in the marketplace with investors accustomed to speculation over income. That is due to change (2:55);
  • No, this isn’t about value versus growth. Dividends and more notably buybacks are everywhere (5:22);
  • Warren Buffett has long said that companies should reinvest in the business rather than pay out dividends. But Buffett is no longer a minority shareholder… (18:30)
  • Background on the guest and unexpected detour into Russia/Ukraine (27:37);
  • Views on different sectors of the stock market from a dividend perspective (36:33);
  • What does the current era of dividend payouts say about the investing cycle? (42:40).

More on the Guest

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Recession in 2023 Should Be Benign With Ample Job Growth: Alex Chausovsky (Szn 4, Ep. 35)

Published December 22, 2022

Alex Chausovsky, vice president of analytics and consulting at Miller Resource Group, rejoins the podcast to discuss his surprisingly upbeat economic outlook for 2023, driven by a healthy labor market in the US.

Content Highlights

  • There may be a recession in 2023 but the US labor market should hold up just fine (3:03);
  • The guest’s assessment is due to first-hand knowledge as his employer is a recruiting firm. None of their clients are slowing hiring (5:37);
  • The trend is due in part to re-shoring of high-end manufacturing to the US, but also to non-US companies seeking to establish manufacturing centers stateside (7:46);
  • The Federal Reserve has been hiking rates aggressively and plans to continue this policy (albeit less aggressively) in 2023, but most of the damage may be done already (9:12)
  • With inflation abating there will be less impetus for the Fed to “truly break things” in 2023 (13:05);
  • Supply chain issues have mostly been resolved, with auto production and semiconductors especially benefiting. Further easing can be expected on the labor side (14:44);
  • One sector of the economy that is clearly poised to benefit: automation (16:56);
  • Background on the guest (22:56);
  • Housing has already contracted but this should turn around by the end of 2023 or early 2024 (31:32);
  • The outcome he’s expecting in his native Ukraine (37:35).

More Information on the Guest

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MoreRecession in 2023 Should Be Benign With Ample Job Growth: Alex Chausovsky (Szn 4, Ep. 35)
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