stocks – Page 16 – The Contrarian Investor Podcast

Hugh Hendry, OG Contrarian (Szn 4, Ep21)

Published August 9, 2022

Hugh Hendry is a man who needs no introduction to contrarians. Over the course of this 90-minute conversation, he provided many views on markets, the economy, the Federal Reserve, China, and a lot more. Of particular interest to investors are his bullish views on commodities, oil producers, and luxury goods makers…

Content Highlights

Hendry’s most contrarian opinion right off the bat: The Fed is not responsible for the asset price bubble (2:40);
“We find ourselves in the fourth depression of the last 200 years” after “les miserables” period of 1830 to ~1855, 1870 to the late 1890s, and the 1930s (8:11);
“I don’t think we have inflation.” Sales of non-discretionary items are not increasing (13:53);
Very few people understand money and money creation. What are they missing? (28:56);
What’s behind the stock market rally this summer? It may be commodities, at least in part… (39:49);
Markets are ‘bucking broncos.’ Volatility can be a major distraction and nothing happens in a straight line. But commodity producers and uranium should be in good shape over the long term (46:55);
Background on the guest. As an ‘OG contrarian’ Hendry joins an exclusive list (54:58);
A little insight into Hendry’s current life and psychology (1:10:40);
Betting on the Chinese yuan weakening (1:14:37);
The odds of the 10-year treasury making new lows (1:22:44);
China invading Taiwan? Hendry sets the odds at 20% and says China will never have a stronger bargaining positioning vis-a-vis the U.S (1:24:16).

More Information on the Guest

Twitter: @Hendry_Hugh;
Substack: HughHendry;
Instagram: HughHendryOfficial;
YouTube: HughHendryOfficial;
The Acid Capitalist.

Quick Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

The ‘Fed Pivot’ Debate

Published August 1, 2022

Powell clearly hinted at ‘neutral policy,’ but was he speaking out of turn?

The following is an amended form of the Daily Contrarian of Aug. 1, which today also featured the host singing the opening of the Swiss national anthem in honor of Swiss national day. This briefing and accompanying podcast are released to premium subscribers each market day morning by 0700. To subscribe, visit our Substack.

As we start the week there are fresh doubts about this ‘Fed pivot’ that drove much of last week’s rally. If you’ll recall, comments by Fed chair Jerome Powell at his press conference led investors to conclude the Fed was going to reverse course on interest rate hikes and soon. This conclusion was refuted by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari late Friday, which has led to much pontification on Twitter and elsewhere.

Here is what Powell said that led investors to pile in to risk assets on Wednesday afternoon to start a rally that held the rest of the week.

Quote from Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conference, July 27, 2022. — Source: Jerome Powell press conference, July 27, 2022. Meme via IMGflip.com

Handicapping the Fed is a dangerous game but so far the market doesn’t appear to be too concerned by Kashkari’s comments. We’ll hear from other Fed officials tomorrow and again later in the week. That’s what’s scheduled, at least. If the Fed is serious about reeling back Powell’s comments they can have officials do interviews on CNBC and elsewhere. So that is maybe worth watching. Maybe Kashkari was the one speaking out of turn?

It’s another busy week for earnings, which should drive things most of the week. The main event however is Friday’s non-farm payrolls. As we know, the labor market has proven itself quite resilient so far in the face of tighter monetary policy, though unemployment claims are up.

Big Week Ahead: Earnings, GDP, Fed Interest Rate Decision

Published July 25, 2022

The following is an amended form of the July 25 Daily Contrarian. This briefing and accompanying podcast are released to premium subscribers each market day morning by 0700. To subscribe, visit our Substack.

We are staring at a three-headed beast this week: Earnings, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, and economic data.

Three-headed beast. Promo image for the original Showa iteration of King Ghidorah. Source: Toho Co via Wiki — Promo image for the original Showa iteration of King Ghidorah.
Source: Toho Co via Wiki

The Fed interest rate decision is Wednesday. Second-quarter GDP is Thursday. The most important economic data release isn’t until Friday with the Personal Consumption Expenditures, aka the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

The FOMC and Q2 GDP will get the lion’s share of attention. Both could turn out to be non-events. GDP is a trailing indicator and anyway this is just the first estimate of Q2 GDP. Yeah if it prints negative that will be two consecutive quarters, which technically means we were/are in recession, blah blah. Doesn’t change the fact that this tells us something which has already happened. As such it is unlikely to move markets very much.

Tag: stocks