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Mild Recession Brings Opportunities in Tech Stocks, Corporate Bonds: (Season 5, Episode 12)

Published May 11, 2023

Feat Elliot Kallen, Prosperity Financial Group

Elliot Kallen, founder of Prosperity Financial Group, joins the podcast to discuss his expectations for a coming recession, to start this summer, and why some of the best opportunities may be in technology stocks and corporate bonds.

Content Highlights

  • Tech stocks: the pullback is coming (3:31);
  • The market is starting to flatline. Look to midcap value stocks (6:04);
  • The Fed will likely raise rates one more time and then reverse. Time to buy bonds — corporates (8:47);
  • Consumers have already started to pull back, judging by some primary evidence the guest gathers… (12:02);
  • Why the recession will be mild, despite the red flags (17:38);
  • Background on the guest (24:00);
  • Active management has its place (30:24);
  • Thoughts on the next generation growth industries (36:53).

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3 Stock Picks, the Case for Investing in Malaysia: Aaron Pek (Szn 5, Epsd 10)

Published April 25, 2023

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. To track a partial portfolio of Value Investing Substack, click here.

Aaron Pek of Value Investing Substack joins the podcast to discuss his bullish outlook on three individual stocks and more generally the investment case for Malaysia.

Content Highlights

  • First idea: Intel (INTC) and why it can compete with Samsung (SSNLF) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) (2:33);
  • Some additional background on Intel and its business case (4:49);
  • Bears say INTC has years until it can catch up to TSMC, but Intel has the necessary machinery to bridge the gap sooner (10:10);
  • Second idea: Occidental Petroleum (OXY), a unique oil play beloved by Warren Buffett (15:23);
  • Background on the guest (23:57);
  • Third idea: Hibiscus Petroleum (HIPEF), whose management team the guest views as the Warren Buffett management team of southeast Asian oil and gas (28:13);
  • The case for Malaysia: a view from the ground (32:29);
  • There is an ETF, iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (EWM) which tracks Malaysian stocks. Discussion of Malaysia’s geopolitical place between China and the US (34:39);
  • China’s lost decade (44:11).

Not investment advice! Do your own research, make your own decisions.

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Tech Is Not Dead, Though It Is Certainly Changing: Kevin Philip (Szn 5, Ep 8)

Published March 28, 2023

Kevin Philip of Bel Air Investment Advisors joins the podcast to discuss why he’s still bullish about technology despite seismic changes in that industry, his less enthusiastic take on cryptocurrencies, and other issues he’s watching — be they in the banking sector or geopolitically.

Content Highlights

  • Tech is not dreck, nor is it dead. Technological advances are at the heart of US economic growth. Demand for digital goods may have gotten ahead of its skis during Covid. It will return (1:40);
  • Chances for an interest cut by year-end have increased with the bank failures (4:30);
  • The employment situation is changing in the technology industry as it comes to terms with delicate circumstances around business models and the concept of value in general (6:01);
  • The bank failures may create opportunities for venture capital in two areas: secondary funds and a new vintage of funds that should generate outsize returns in the future (9:20);
  • Tech stocks have been beaten down, but lower interest rates can sustain earnings multiples. There are risks, however… (11:23);
  • Some of the threats and opportunities wrought by Chat GPT and AI (14:11);
  • When it comes to cryptocurrencies, the guest is not a major fan — and this was recorded before Binance (18:52);
  • Silicon Valley Bank was poorly managed and had a bad business model. It deserved to fail (21:52);
  • As for Credit Suisse, the Swiss bank appears to have been undone by a crisis of confidence (23:44);
  • Background on the guest (27:50);
  • Bel Air’s clientele is mostly about wealth protection rather than growth. What are some tried and true methods for accomplishing this? (32:25);
  • China discussion and why there’s no need to invest internationally (34:48);
  • Through it all, there are reasons for optimism (43:31).

Not investment advice.

For more information on the guest, visit the Bel Air Investment Advisors website.

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