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Tariffs Have Changed ‘Plumbing’ of Global Finance (Szn 7, Epsd 8)Podcast episode cover art featuring Axel Merk

Tariffs Have Changed ‘Plumbing’ of Global Finance (Szn 7, Epsd 8)

Published May 6, 2025

With Axel Merk, Merk Investments

Axel Merk of Merk Investments rejoins the podcast to discuss his view that Trump’s tariffs have fundamentally unbalanced the global financial order. This has created real risks, but also opportunities…

This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, April 30 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day. More information on premium subscriptions is available here.

Content Highlights

  • The ‘plumbing’ of the global financial system has been upended as a result of tariffs (1:35);
  • China will not dump all their US Treasury holdings overnight. But tariffs will impact future flows. A fragmentation away from US dollar-denominated assets is likely (6:50);
  • Are tariffs inflationary or deflationary? They’re a supply shock: stagflation is the result (10:42);
  • If global trade is impeded and ultimately curtailed, how does this not end badly for economic growth? It will require a mental change from the existing environment. Fortunately, history has ample examples of this transition… (16:19);
  • Europe and China may face trouble in this new world order. So will Turkey. “There will be more tension” (24:45);
  • The case for gold and gold miners (32:16);
  • Does the US enter recession this year? Economic numbers are going to be distorted, so it may not matter. But the spike in imports heading into tariffs will almost certainly create inventory build-up… (37:18).

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Opportunities in High Yield, Private Credit and More (Szn 7, Epsd 7)Podcast episode cover art feat AJ Giannone

Opportunities in High Yield, Private Credit and More (Szn 7, Epsd 7)

Published March 31, 2025

With AJ Giannone, Alio Capital

AJ Giannone, the chief investment officer of Allio Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss why high yield and private credit present compelling opportunities for retail investors — despite the apparently advanced state of the economic cycle.

This podcast was recorded on Monday, March 17, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers the very next day. For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack.

Not investment advice! Do your own research, make your own decisions.

Content Highlights

  • High yield debt: this does not appear to be a good time to invest in this asset class, especially through listed funds. Or is it? (1:18);

  • The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is one way convenient and low-cost way for retail investors to access this asset class (5:05);

  • Another iShares product, iShares BB Rated Corporate Bond ETF (HYBB) is a so-called ‘smart beta’ approach… (7:43);

  • The guest is not particularly concerned about a recession, or at least not the performance of high yield should one come to pass. Even then, the default rate should not increase dramatically (9:51);

  • Private credit is another niche corner of the credit market that has recently been open to retail investors via ETFs VPC and PCMM, among others (12:39);

  • Background on the guest (22:52);

  • Some of the macro signals he watches and what they are telling us right now (28:01);

  • There is still upside in European equities (33:54);

  • What about the US market? (38:19)

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Recession Fears Are Overblown (Szn 7, Epsd 6)Podcast episode cover art feat Robert Smallbone

Recession Fears Are Overblown (Szn 7, Epsd 6)

Published March 18, 2025

With Robert Smallwood, The Contrarian Catalyst

Robert Smallbone, aka The Contrarian Capitalist, joins the podcast to discuss his view that recession fears are overblown and a fresh “blow-off top” is coming.

Content Highlights

  • Bearishness appears to have taken over markets. The S&P 500 just entered a correction. The guest is not buying that narrative (1:16);
  • The uncertainty created by the new US president may be intentional to lower bond yields — and interest rates (4:15);
  • European and UK stock indexes should have more upside ahead (7:21);
  • Background on the guest (12:46);
  • The view on gold and silver (16:11);
  • Crypto discussion (18:40).

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