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Economic Cycle Still Has Room to Run, Even With Tariffs (Szn 7, Epsd 5)Podcast episode cover art featuring guest Scott Colbert

Economic Cycle Still Has Room to Run, Even With Tariffs (Szn 7, Epsd 5)

Published March 11, 2025

With Scott Colbert, Commerce Trust

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss why the economy can continue to expand even with the onset of Trump tariffs.

This podcast episode was recorded on March 6, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers exclusively the same day it was recorded. Information on premium membership is avaliable here.

Content Highlights

  • The “Trump tariff barrage” will lead to slower growth, lower economic activity, and higher inflation — in the short term (1:51);
  • Over the medium term however, tariffs should not trigger a recession, nor will they have a lasting impact on prices aka inflation (6:24);
  • Labor markets: Immigration has ground to a halt, but people are aging out of the workforce. Government layoffs notwithstanding, that should result in a wash (10:23);
  • Ultimately the economic cycle is half way through its growth stage, which should run for another four years. However this won’t be great for growth stocks like the ‘magnificent 7’… (15:14);
  • Fixed income is suddenly an attractive asset class and international stocks have tailwinds as well… (18:03);
  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker is suddenly predicting a negative print for first-quarter GDP. There are logical reasons for this (24:23).

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US Economic Outlook ‘Surprisingly Optimistic’ (Szn 6, Episode 2)podcast cover image feat Scott Colbert, chief economist, Commerce Trust Co.

US Economic Outlook ‘Surprisingly Optimistic’ (Szn 6, Episode 2)

Published February 1, 2024

Scott Colbert, Chief Economist, Commerce Trust Co.

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss his “surprisingly optimistic” outlook for the US economy in 2024.

This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 30, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our Substack or Supercast pages.

Content Highlights

  • The outlook for the economy is surprisingly optimistic given the set-up going in to last year (1:30);
  • The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates for some time (2:39);
  • Can stocks continue to advance without rate cuts? The outlook for small caps and mid-caps… (6:35);
  • The outlook for bonds: surprisingly constructive even if there aren’t rate cuts right away (10:05);
  • How the economy is breaking down geographically in the US… (17:01);
  • Commercial real estate is ‘the canary in the coal mine’ but nowhere near as pervasive as subprime residential pre-2008… (24:36);
  • The guest’s take on the impact of this year’s US presidential election (28:15);
  • Top concerns start with deficit spending… (33:23);
  • An economist’s take on the AI revolution (39:28).

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Season 3, Episode 14: Quick Call on Fed Meeting and Economic Outlook

Published June 15, 2021

With Scott Colbert, Chief Economist, Commerce Trust Company

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and state of the economy.

This was a quick call recorded over a phone line on Tuesday, June 15.

Content Highlights:

  • The Fed meeting that concludes June 16 and the coming discussion around the rolldown of QE (0:52);
  • Colbert’s reasons for being “grossly optimistic” about the economy (3:43);
  • The biggest concern is around the length of the current expansion (5:04);
  • The prospects of asset bubbles and why the ‘dot plot’ should see an increase from four to six or seven members of the FOMC who want to see higher interest rates (7:37);
  • Where does all this leave investors? (11:06);
  • What is driving the drop in bond yields (14:41);

Not intended as investment advice.

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