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Tag: tail risk

Bearish Indicators Abound, With Downside Risks for Stocks: Ayesha Tariq (Szn 4, Ep. 15)

Published May 31, 2022

Ayesha Tariq of Keystone Consulting joins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss her bearish views on the global economy and on stock markets, what investment options she prefers right now, and why work-from-home will not persist (or at least not at current levels).

Content Highlights

  • The idea of a ‘Fed pivot’ away from higher rates is baseless. The Fed has no choice but to raise rates (3:01);
  • What about inflation having peaked? Won’t that remove some pressure from the Fed? (8:35);
  • Unemployment is due to rise, with companies soon having no choice but to lay off workers — but this won’t stop the Fed either (11:28);
  • Markets had a good week. Did we have the bottom already? (13:57);
  • What about commodities? A potential bright spot due to structural issues? (15:32);
  • Background on the guest (21:06);
  • What are some of the best options for investors in light of all this? (23:19);
  • Real estate investment trusts are one good option, especially commercial real estate. Work-from-home was a phase that will be scaled back soon (26:25);

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Not intended as investment advice.

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Szn 4, Ep 6: The ‘Bad Times Are Already Here,’ With Acquirers Funds’ Tobias Carlisle

Published March 2, 2022

Tobias Carlisle of Acquirers Funds rejoins the podcast to discuss the stock market’s latest dramatic reversal, this time over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and why investors may be a bit too bullish at present…

Content Highlights

  • How to take the huge reversal last week with Russia-Ukraine? (3:11)
  • Every war starts with “the boys will be home by Christmas,” but most tend to drag on longer than anticipated. Sometimes a lot longer… (5:13);
  • Growth stocks have been in correction territory for some time. Are they in a bear market? Probably… (8:52);
  • The interest rate cycle has not started tightening but inflation has the Fed caught between a rock and a hard place (15:53);
  • Energy and energy stocks are still cheap. Then there are defense contractors. Lockheed Martin (LMT) has benefited from Russia-Ukraine and Carlisle is a holder… (21:25);
  • Facebook aka Meta (FB) is also cheap (23:20);
  • Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs: Dead as Disco (30:12);
  • The aim of investing is to survive the bad times and they are “probably here” (37:18).

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Szn 4, Ep. 1: Barry Knapp on Uncertainty Shocks, Inflation, Economic Growth, and What Else to Expect in 2022

Published January 7, 2022

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his 2022 outlook for the economy and markets. He is broadly optimistic on the former, but less enthusiastic about the latter — at least in the first half of the year — with strong possibility of ‘uncertainty shocks,’ especially around Fed events (sound familiar?) There is also some interesting discussion around interest rates, inflation, and China, among others.

Content Highlights

(Spotify users can link to the start of the section by clicking on the timestamp)

  • A lot has changed in a year, though probably nothing quite as much as the inflation outlook (3:04);
  • Markets and economics should diverge significantly in the first half of the year (4:51);
  • The Federal Reserve is due to embark on a rate-tightening cycle, which should be negative for markets but will be net-neutral, or perhaps even positive for the economy (8:00);
  • Inflation is running hot, but the guest has done some deep research on similar historical epochs and finds the concern less pressing than most (17:20);
  • The key level for inflation is 4% — if the CPI exceeds it consistently there could be trouble. Link to the Fed paper referenced here (21:33);
  • Still, there is a strong possibility for ‘uncertainty shocks’ in the first half of the year (29:52);
  • Finally, China: Reasons to be bearish. Very bearish (34:58).

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