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Tag: recession

Value Stock Geek on Google, Meta, Taiwan Semiconductor (Season 5, Episode 13)

Published May 18, 2023

This episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 16 and made available to premium subscribers that same day. To become a premium subscriber sign up on Supercast or Substack.

Value Stock Geek rejoins the podcast to discuss recent portfolio acquisitions Google (GOOG), Meta (META), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), what’s on his watch list, and where and when he could be looking to buy.

Content Highlights

  • The case for Google stock (1:54);
  • Artificial intelligence and how that is impacting Google’s business (6:40);
  • Meta and the Metaverse: investing in the legacy business plus Instagram (7:38);
  • Taiwan Semiconductor: cyclical, yes, but a good bet for the long term (12:39);
  • ‘The Weird Portfolio’ and how that works (16:07);
  • The watchlist and two notable stocks worth watching right now: NVR (NVR) and Deere (DE) (20:39).
  • Home Depot (HD), another watchlist stock, just reported earnings and lowered guidance due in part to consumers pulling back on big-ticket purchases (29:00).

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Mild Recession Brings Opportunities in Tech Stocks, Corporate Bonds: (Season 5, Episode 12)

Published May 11, 2023

Feat Elliot Kallen, Prosperity Financial Group

Elliot Kallen, founder of Prosperity Financial Group, joins the podcast to discuss his expectations for a coming recession, to start this summer, and why some of the best opportunities may be in technology stocks and corporate bonds.

Content Highlights

  • Tech stocks: the pullback is coming (3:31);
  • The market is starting to flatline. Look to midcap value stocks (6:04);
  • The Fed will likely raise rates one more time and then reverse. Time to buy bonds — corporates (8:47);
  • Consumers have already started to pull back, judging by some primary evidence the guest gathers… (12:02);
  • Why the recession will be mild, despite the red flags (17:38);
  • Background on the guest (24:00);
  • Active management has its place (30:24);
  • Thoughts on the next generation growth industries (36:53).

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Risk/Reward Still Skewed Toward Risk: Mike Singleton, Invictus Research (Szn 5, Ep 9)

Published April 11, 2023

This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, April 6, with an actionable highlights clip previewing the following day’s non-farm payrolls released to premium subscribers that same day. The full podcast episode was then released to premium subscribers a day later. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast.

Mike Singleton of Invictus Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his pessimistic outlook for the economy, why he’s concerned about credit risk, and why the Federal Reserve should end up cutting rates before too long.

Content Highlights

  • The outlook for risk assets is still not constructive (2:40);
  • Fed rate hikes are very close to a peak, if not there already (4:43);
  • Economic conditions point to stubborn inflation (7:09);
  • Inflation may not need to return to the Fed’s 2% target for there to be rate cuts (11:00);
  • The outlook for commodities prices is not particularly constructive either (15:59);
  • What to make of the banks? (21:14);
  • One leading economic indicator that Invictus likes, which is overlooked (or ignored) by the market at large (22:30);
  • The backdrop is still positive for short-term bonds (24:28);
  • Leading indicators for the yield curve include bank lending standards, which right now suggest a steepening… (26:13).

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Not investment advice.

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MoreRisk/Reward Still Skewed Toward Risk: Mike Singleton, Invictus Research (Szn 5, Ep 9)
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