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Hard Landing for the US Economy, Mild Recession to Spare Emerging Markets (Szn 5, Epsd 23)Episode 23 coverart feat Ayesha Tariq

Hard Landing for the US Economy, Mild Recession to Spare Emerging Markets (Szn 5, Epsd 23)

Published September 4, 2023

With Ayesha Tariq, MacroVisor

This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 29 with a ‘highlight’ clip of the most actionable insights released to premium subscribers that same day. Premium subscribers then received the full episode — without ads or interruptions — the following day, on Aug. 30.

Ayesha Tariq, co-founder of MacroVisor, rejoins the podcast to discuss why she is expecting a hard landing for the US economy along with other contrarian views she has about the Federal Reserve and global financial markets.

Content Highlights

  • The ‘soft landing’ scenario has effectively become the base case. Why that’s wrong (1:32);
  • Unlike many (most?) recessions, this one will not be preceded by a Fed-induced credit event. For this reason, it will be milder (4:44);
  • The Federal Reserve is likely to hike at its next meeting on Sept. 20. That will be its last hike this cycle (8:53);
  • The US downturn will not necessarily lead to a global recession (12:58);
  • The outlook for commodities, specifically copper, is bullish despite the bearish economic outlook (18:48);
  • Rate hikes might be off the table, but quantitative tightening could still be incoming in 2024 (23:45);
  • New segment: Listener questions. Whoever’s questions are read wins a free Contrarian mug. First up: what to make of Nvidia and AI (26:36);
  • Next listener question: what to look for in bank earnings? (31:42);
  • One area of the stock market where the guest is particularly bullish (36:35).

For more about the guest, visit her website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X.

Not investment advice.

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Transcript

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The Economy’s Soft-Landing Will Be Short-Lived: Peter Kraus, Aperture Investors (Szn 5, Ep 20)Contrarian Investor Podcast Season 5 Episode 20 cover art

The Economy’s Soft-Landing Will Be Short-Lived: Peter Kraus, Aperture Investors (Szn 5, Ep 20)

Published August 11, 2023

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers the same day it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast.

Peter Kraus, founder and CEO of Aperture Investors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, why he expects the ‘soft landing’ to occur, but why it will quickly give way to renewed concerns.

Content Highlights

  • An economic soft landing is likely, but will be transitional (1:38);
  • The Fed is unlikely to ‘break more stuff’ as this spring’s banking crisis was a short-term liquidity crisis that has since been resolved. But refinancing will be a problem (4:12);
  • Inflation will be more persistent and ‘sticky’ than markets are pricing in right now. This doesn’t leave bonds in a very good position (7:20);
  • When it comes to stocks, expect volatility until late autumn at which point higher interest rates will start to bite (16:17);
  • The consumer, and consumer stocks, will lead the rebound starting as early as December (19:33);
  • Background on the guest (26:06);
  • China’s driver of commodity prices may be over (35:42).

More About Aperture Investors

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Investor Confidence Is Fast Approaching ‘Invulnerable Extremes’ (Szn 5, Ep 19)Cover Art: Contrarian Investor Podcast Season 5 Episode 19

Investor Confidence Is Fast Approaching ‘Invulnerable Extremes’ (Szn 5, Ep 19)

Published July 27, 2023

With Peter Atwater

This podcast episode was made availableto premium subscribers on July 25 without ads or announcements. There are many other benefits to being a premium subscriber. Sign up through Supercast or our Substack.

Peter Atwater joins the podcast to discuss the ideas from his latest book, “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path From Chaos to Clarity.” Crucially, he tells listeners why investor confidence is today fast approaching the ‘invulnerable extreme’ that indicates a top in markets…

Content Highlights

  • Investor preferences change dramatically with their confidence levels. Generally high confidence corresponds to preference for abstract items (NFTs, cryptos) whilst low confidence yields a preference for more practical things (2:48)
  • Yes, magazine covers can be a reliable contrarian indicator (5:52);
  • Investor confidence levels are rapidly approaching the ‘invulnerable extreme’ with AI hype and a bull market for luxury goods (10:08);
  • How to deal with the question of timing, and signs to look for when seeking to identify a top (15:17);
  • When it comes to cryptos, the most recent mania has passed and the prospects of another round is remote (18:16);
  • Background on the guest (24:10);
  • Investor mania is not defined so much by overconfidence but invulnerability (27:37);
  • Where does this leave investors in terms of asset allocation? Introducing ‘sentiment diversification’ (30:08);
  • Natural gas may be at an inflection point that presages a really (32:19).

More From Peter Atwater

Not investment advice.

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