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Tag: recession

US Economic Outlook ‘Surprisingly Optimistic’ (Szn 6, Episode 2)podcast cover image feat Scott Colbert, chief economist, Commerce Trust Co.

US Economic Outlook ‘Surprisingly Optimistic’ (Szn 6, Episode 2)

Published February 1, 2024

Scott Colbert, Chief Economist, Commerce Trust Co.

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss his “surprisingly optimistic” outlook for the US economy in 2024.

This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 30, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our Substack or Supercast pages.

Content Highlights

  • The outlook for the economy is surprisingly optimistic given the set-up going in to last year (1:30);
  • The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates for some time (2:39);
  • Can stocks continue to advance without rate cuts? The outlook for small caps and mid-caps… (6:35);
  • The outlook for bonds: surprisingly constructive even if there aren’t rate cuts right away (10:05);
  • How the economy is breaking down geographically in the US… (17:01);
  • Commercial real estate is ‘the canary in the coal mine’ but nowhere near as pervasive as subprime residential pre-2008… (24:36);
  • The guest’s take on the impact of this year’s US presidential election (28:15);
  • Top concerns start with deficit spending… (33:23);
  • An economist’s take on the AI revolution (39:28).

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Markets Face Headwinds in First Half of 2024 (Szn 6, Episode 1)

Published January 11, 2024

Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics

This episode was recorded on Jan. 8, 2024, and made available to premium subscribers the following day — without ads or announcements. For details on how to become a premium subscriber (it’s very easy), visit our Substack or Supercast.

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his outlook for the economy and markets in 2024.

Content Highlights

  • Knapp’s outlook for 2023 played out until September. Then the Fed changed the rules of the game somewhat and markets now face a difficult period… (3:29);
  • Investors are expecting a recovery in earnings, which may be hard to achieve (7:00);
  • The drop in inflation can be traced to one cause: a deflationary shock in goods prices (8:57);
  • How the Fed can justify interest rates as soon as March… (11:36);
  • Why bonds haven’t continued to rally this year (16:58);
  • The Fed will cut to 4% by year-end and the yield curve should dis-invert with 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.5% (22:06);
  • Fed independence is taken for granted. That may be about to change… (28:35);
  • Only four occasions post WWII have seen yield curve inversions this deep. All have led to major recessions… (36:40);
  • How do stocks look in this whole picture (40:31)

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Risks Point to Downside in 2024 (Szn 5, Epsd 29)Contrarian Investor Podcast Season 5, Episode 29 feat Kyrill Asatur, Centerfin

Risks Point to Downside in 2024 (Szn 5, Epsd 29)

Published December 27, 2023

With Kyrill Asatur, Centerfin

This podcast episode was recorded Dec. 20, 2023 and made available exclusively — without ads or announcements — for premium subscribers that same day. This is just one of the benefits of becoming a premium subscriber. The others are detailed on our Supercast or Substack pages.

Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, re-joins the podcast to discuss his views going into 2024 and the likelihood there won’t be a ‘soft landing’ for the economy next year.

Content Highlights

  • Consensus estimates for 2024 are going to be wrong, just like they were for this year and every year before it (2:12);
  • Coming in to this year the banking sector was a concern, though as it turned out for the wrong reasons (4:39);
  • The catalyst for the reversal this fall and the new, dovish Fed (7:26);
  • The contrarian call is that they’re won’t be a soft landing — or a stock market crash (11:44);
  • Possible explanation for the ‘Fed pivot’ (16:48);
  • How the guest is allocating assets going into 2024 (23:56);
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) discussion (29:02).

More on the Guest

This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.

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