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Tag: recession

Stock Market Expectations Getting Ahead of Economic Realities (Szn 6, Epsd 9)Podcast episode cover image feat Bob Elliott

Stock Market Expectations Getting Ahead of Economic Realities (Szn 6, Epsd 9)

Published June 4, 2024

With Bob Elliott, Unlimited

Bob Elliott of Unlimited rejoins the podcast to discuss his view that stock markets are pricing in a lot of optimism that may not be based on economic realities…

Content Highlights

  • Stock markets are pricing in a lot of optimism. Just how unrealistic is that? (1:19);
  • What is there to indicate the economy could slow this year or even next? (4:34);
  • A recession may be years away rather than months under current conditions. But conditions, as we know, can change quickly… (8:58);
  • There is a precedence to interest rates going up dramatically without it causing an immediate and dramatic entrenchment in economic growth (11:52);
  • Tech stocks might be overvalued but comparisons to the dot-com bubble are unfair and inaccurate — and may preclude a spectacular bust (16:10);
  • Today’s economic expansion is income-driven. Not a result of credit expansion (18:13);
  • What kinds of indicators should investors study to spot a slowdown in this particular type of economic activity? (30:45);
  • Regional banks are for the most part fairly priced at present… (35:50).

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The Specter of Stagflation Still Looms (Szn 6, Epsd 8)

Published May 13, 2024

With Ayesha Tariq, Macro Visor

Ayesha Tariq, founder of Macro Visor, rejoins the podcast to discuss her views on the economy, markets, and where investors should look for opportunities.

  • The macro set-up and why people are talking about stagflation (1:56);
  • The K-shaped economy and the damage being done (3:31);
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell claims there’s no stag and no flation. Is he wrong? (It wouldn’t be the first time) (8:50);
  • Faced with this backdrop, what does one do as an investor? (13:03);
  • China: There are still reasons to worry, even though the bleeding from the property market has abated a bit… (15:58);
  • India: long term growth story. Also copper, oil, and Japan (17:11);
  • The guest’s favorite areas for opportunity right now: UK and India (21:07);
  • A long-term concern is the fiscal situation in the US (22:00).

For more about the guest, visit her firm’s website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X. 

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Lessons From Financial History (Szn 6, Epsd 4)Cover art, Szn 6, Episode 4 feat Mark Higgins

Lessons From Financial History (Szn 6, Epsd 4)

Published March 13, 2024

With Mark Higgins, Author, ‘Investing in Financial History’

Mark Higgins, author of the new book, Investing in Financial History, joins the podcast to discuss lessons from the past and what period is the most appropriate point of comparison to today’s market environment.

Content Highlights

  • What period from the past compares closest to the one we’re living through now? It’s a combination of several… (1:56);
  • The last time the US — and Federal Reserve — battled serious inflation was from 1965 to the early 1980s. Here there are several parallels to today’s age… (4:36);
  • The Fed appeared to turn more accommodative in December and January. This may have been a mistake (9:04);
  • Financial history is very much a history of panics, but there has not been a major bank run in the US since the Great Depression (11:51);
  • Portfolios have become increasingly complex without proper consideration of cost — and risks (15:40);
  • Decentralized currencies aren’t new and in fact once characterized the US dollar — and for the same reason (fear of central banks and fiat currency, etc). That didn’t end well… (18:06);
  • Background on the guest and how he came to write the book (22:05);
  • Bubbles and their challenges. Some commonalities include the media as trailing indicator… (27:17);
  • The 180 degree turn on public debt by US public officials (29:36);
  • The US dollar will likely be replaced as global reserve currency one day (33:25).

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