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Tag: recession

The Coming Credit Crunch and Death of Unicorns: Leo Schmidt (Szn 4, Ep 11)

Published April 18, 2022

Leo Schmidt of River Eddy Capital Management rejoins the podcast to discuss the coming credit crunch, its impact on stock market sectors, and where to invest to protect one’s portfolio.

Content Highlights

  • So-called “unicorn” companies, or the darlings of the VC crowd, and others that cannot generate cashflow, will face a tough reckoning (3:17);
  • Undermining this is “a complete change of psychology” in terms of velocity of money (6:27);
  • What if the Fed reverses course? It’s not so simple (8:52);
  • Oil is a short: “Oil is the ultimate liquid commodity” but there is a place for pipeline stocks… (11:38);
  • What stocks can thrive in this type of environment? Look first to medical company spin-offs (19:13);
  • Another area to look: Business development companies, or BDCs. This is a risky part of the market but there is at least one BDC making first-lien loans, which are the safest part of the capital structure… (26:23);
  • Quick epilogue on China’s latest Covid lockdown. There are ways to play the move away from supply chain issues that result (35:58);

Quick Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

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Stock Picks to Play the Coming Inflation Slowdown (Szn 4, Ep 9)

Published March 24, 2022

With Lukasz Tomicki, LRT Capital Management

Lukasz Tomicki of LRT Capital rejoins the podcast to argue his (highly contrarian) case that inflation is due to slow and to provide stock picks that allow investors to take advantage of current dislocations in markets.

Content Highlights

  • Inflation will peak around mid-year and return to historic norms shortly thereafter (2:43);
  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its impact on supply chains have certainly contributed to higher prices for commodities, but markets will adapt (7:01);
  • Another contrarian take: The Fed will successfully manage a soft landing (8:55);
  • “Russia is basically a gas station with nuclear weapons.” The U.S. and Europe can deal without Russian imports so this shouldn’t be a point of concern (14:20);
  • Stocks of two Brazilian companies that have been beaten down but have started to rebound… (20:05);
  • A company that has been directly impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an IT consulting firm with a large presence in Ukraine whose stock has predictably been beaten up but could offer huge returns (31:38);
  • The most likely outcome in Ukraine is for the military situation to grind to a stalemate (35:55);
  • A final idea: Buy the Polish stock market through the iShares MSCI Poland Capped ETF (EPOL) (39:50).

More Information on the Guest

Not intended as investment advice.

Video Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

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Szn 4, Ep 6: The ‘Bad Times Are Already Here,’ With Acquirers Funds’ Tobias Carlisle

Published March 2, 2022

Tobias Carlisle of Acquirers Funds rejoins the podcast to discuss the stock market’s latest dramatic reversal, this time over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and why investors may be a bit too bullish at present…

Content Highlights

  • How to take the huge reversal last week with Russia-Ukraine? (3:11)
  • Every war starts with “the boys will be home by Christmas,” but most tend to drag on longer than anticipated. Sometimes a lot longer… (5:13);
  • Growth stocks have been in correction territory for some time. Are they in a bear market? Probably… (8:52);
  • The interest rate cycle has not started tightening but inflation has the Fed caught between a rock and a hard place (15:53);
  • Energy and energy stocks are still cheap. Then there are defense contractors. Lockheed Martin (LMT) has benefited from Russia-Ukraine and Carlisle is a holder… (21:25);
  • Facebook aka Meta (FB) is also cheap (23:20);
  • Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs: Dead as Disco (30:12);
  • The aim of investing is to survive the bad times and they are “probably here” (37:18).

More From the Guest

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