recession – Page 2 – The Contrarian Investor Podcast

Economic Data Pointing in Right Direction, for Now (Szn 6, Epsd 14)

Economic Data Pointing in Right Direction, for Now (Szn 6, Epsd 14)

Published August 21, 2024

Feat Colin White, Verecan Capital

Colin White of Verecan Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy and why he considers the likelihood of a ‘soft landing’ to have increased…

This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024 and made available for premium subscribers the following day. More information on premium subscriptions is avalailable on our Substack page..

Content Highlights

Economic indicators are pointing to increased chances of a ‘soft landing’… (1:10);
The Federal Reserve (and other central banks) have ‘bullets in their gun’ in the form of interest rate cuts, should the need arise. Another reason for confidence (3:27);
Employment numbers are the most important datapoint to watch right now (6:41);
The Age of Finfluencers and dangers it has wrought (14:32);
Central banks have a responsibility to act in the best interests of the general public. If they stray from that responsibility, the structure that governs central banks can change (19:29);
Background on the guest (23:31);
No, real estate is not always a good investment (34:11);
AI discussion (37:41).

What’s Got the Fed Spooked?

Published July 10, 2024

This blog post is an amended version of the Daily Contrarian from July 10, 2024.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in his Congressional testimony yesterday again put forward the case for rate cuts. “Elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” Powell said. “Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”

It may not sound like much, but this is some of the most dovish commentary we’ve gotten from Powell since before his 2022 Jackson Hole speech. It begs the question whether the economy is really in as dire enough shape to where rate cuts become necessary, presumably as soon as the FOMC meeting on Sept. 18.

Existing economic data doesn’t exactly shout slowdown, much less recession:

Job production is still plentiful. Jobless claims are up a bit, but that’s from a low base.
Retail sales may not be growing as much as they were early in the year, but are holding steady at a very high plateau.
The housing market has slowed in certain parts of the country, but that might be more due to overbuilding than broader macroeconomic forces.

Conspiracy theories aside, it’s hard to see how the Fed could legitimately have an ulterior motive for cutting rates early. Either Jay Powell & Co are just stupid and reckless, or they’re trying to get ahead of things. Perhaps there’s a third alternative, which is that they’re setting the market up for rate cuts just in case they need them?

Come to think of it, even that gets into conspiracy territory. They probably are just concerned about the trajectory of the economy based on labor data and the housing market. Whether that is justified is another question entirely.

US Economy Too Strong for Fed, Where to Invest Now (Szn 6, Epsd 10)

Published June 14, 2024

With Leo Schmidt, River Eddy Capital

Leo Schmidt, founder of family office River Eddy Capital, rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on economy, markets, and where to invest capital in what may be a ‘stagflation lite’ environment.

“Labor markets are way too hot.” There will be “no landing” (1:48);
Non-farm payrolls came out much stronger than anticipated. What this says about the labor market (4:59);
‘Stagflation lite’ (8:31);
Our views of credit creation are outdated. The shadow banking system has replaced commercial banks as the primary source of credit. What this means (11:59);
The Federal Reserve probably needs to raise rates. Could they? Probably not — this year (22:21);
What does an investor do now? First up: Stocks that are AI/Nvidia (NVDA) plays. Celestica (CLS), Flex (FLEX), Sanmina (SANM), Jabil (JBL) (27:51);
Pharma spin-outs: Haleon (HLN), Kenvue (KVUE), Organon (OGN), Viatris (VTRS) (31:54);
Dollar stores, especially Dollar Tree (DLTR), are poised to outperform once there is an economic slowdown (39:07);
The bullish case for pipeline companies (46:59).