recession – Page 12 – The Contrarian Investor Podcast

Assessing the new ‘Recession Fear’ Narrative

Published December 8, 2022

The following is an amended version of the Dec. 8 Daily Contrarian. This briefing and accompanying podcast are released to premium subscribers each market day morning by 0700. To subscribe, visit our Substack or Supercast.

The emerging narrative this week is concerns about recession and interest rate hikes. These have been voiced from authoritative sources, including from two major Wall Street bank CEOs: Goldman Sachs’s David Solomon and JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon. The former spoke at a conference about a slowing economy and the latter went on CNBC to talk about how inflation would erode consumer confidence next year. Dimon also expressed concerns about geopolitical issues.

"It could be a hurricane" -- Jamie Dimon — Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan CEO, on economic pressures facing markets next year

Dimon is certainly one individual worth listening to when it comes to economic forecasts. As the CEO of the country’s largest lender he will be keenly aware of the kinds of issues that consumers in particular might have to deal with. Some context is necessary here as Dimon did hedge his comments (watch the video).

‘Options Mike’ on the Coming Year-End Rally for Stocks (Szn 4, Ep. 33)

Published December 1, 2022

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win.

Michael Pisani, aka Options Mike, joins the podcast to discuss why he’s anticipating a year-end rally in stocks.

Content Highlights

It’s been a tough year for stocks and risk assets. That may be about to change (2:10);
Jerome Powell and the Fed have twice this year fooled markets into anticipating a pivot. But something has changed and the FOMC is no longer unanimous with its hawkishness (4:04);
There is still a lot of cash still on the sidelines (6:46);
Specific areas of the market Pisani likes here. And specific stocks, primarily Ford (F) and to a lesser extent General Motors (GM), both as longterm plays (11:42);
Another stock he’s bullish on: Snowflake (SNOW) and several that are candidates to go to zero (12:33);
An easy contrarian play: ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). Yes, really (15:46);
Pisani’s take on cryptos (18:31);
Background on the guest (23:44).

Video Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

Prepare for a ‘Long Slog’ in Stock Markets as Fed Hikes Continue: Bob Elliott (Szn 4, Ep. 31)

Published November 9, 2022

Bob Elliott, chief investment officer of Unlimited Funds, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the Federal Reserve, inflation, the midterm elections, and why stocks have entered a long ‘slog’ for the foreseeable future.

Content Highlights

Investors have been conditioned for recessions to feature a fast decline in equity markets followed by a rapid recovery. This time around those dynamics are different (3:44);
There is no chance of a ‘Fed pivot’ coming anytime soon (7:58);
What about infighting at the Fed and within the FOMC? (11:03);
Yes, you need unemployment to increase for there to be any progress with inflation. Higher prices are no longer due to supply chain issues (13:57);
The Fed will raise either 50bps or 75bps at its next meeting and rates could easily go up to 6% (21:22);
Background on the guest and his ETF, the Unlimited HFND Multi Strategy Return Tracker ETF. Stock ticker: HFND (26:19);
The growing disconnect between hedge fund positioning and retail investors: Hedge funds are short bonds, long commodities, bullish gold, and are sitting on a bunch of cash… (36:21);
The Fed’s target rate for inflation is 2%, but that could change. That would bring a myriad of issues… (38:24);
It’s hard to get bullish about longterm bonds: right now and for the foreseeable future (40:54);
Investors continue to look for reasons that the economy is slowing and the Fed needs to reverse course. There is virtually no evidence of this happening (42:44);
The midterm elections are likely to lead to a split government. This brings tail risks that few people are talking about (44:50).