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Tag: interest rates

Short-Term Treasuries: The Place to Be (Szn 5, Episode 28)Podcast episode cover art feat Jared Dillian, Daily Dirt Nap

Short-Term Treasuries: The Place to Be (Szn 5, Episode 28)

Published December 5, 2023

Feat Jared Dillian, Daily Dirt Nap

This podcast episode was recorded Nov. 29, 2023 and made available to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast.

Jared Dillian of the Daily Dirt Nap joins the podcast to discuss his bullish views on short-term Treasuries and less optimistic outlook for the US economy. He also discusses his work as an author and views on disparate issues facing society. 

Note: The podcast episode contains some mature language.

Content Highlights

  • The ‘soft landing’ scenario appears to have become the base case. Dillian doesn’t quite buy that (1:37);
  • To be bullish on short-term Treasuries one needs to believe the Fed is going to cut rates. That is imminent (4:26);
  • Addressing the inflation bogeyman. The risk has maybe receded over the short term, but what about a return over the medium term? There is historical precedent for this from the last time inflation was a serious force in the US… (9:37);
  • Background on the guest and a broad discussion of his time at Lehman Brothers (including its downfall), working on Wall Street, career paths, education, and more…(15:48)

More About the Guest

Mention this podcast for a generous discount on the Daily Dirt Nap!

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Opportunities in Credit Markets with Tom Carney, Weitz Investments (Szn 5, Episode 26)Cover art, podcast season 5, episode 26

Opportunities in Credit Markets with Tom Carney, Weitz Investments (Szn 5, Episode 26)

Published October 31, 2023

This episode was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 26 without ads or announcements. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack or Supercast.

Tom Carney, co-head of fixed-income at Weitz Investments, joins the podcast to discuss his (perhaps surprisingly) optimistic view of bond and credit markets.

Content Highlights

  • Carney’s views on the bond market. Interest rates have created a much-improved, encouraging environment for investors (1:33);
  • Opportunities include the non-corporate bond market, specifically the asset-backed securities market (5:38);
  • The guest has a unique view into consumer lending. There are defaults, but not more than usual (10:37);
  • Discussion of the mortgage-backed securities market. There too, defaults are not particularly prevalent (13:05);
  • How big of a concern is the Fed? (24:25);
  • Background on the guest (29:57);
  • What about his concerns facing markets at present? (38:09).

For more information on the guest, visit the website WeitzInvestments.com.

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Stocks, Bonds to Rally in Q4: David Hunter (Szn 5, Episode 25)David Hunter Szn 5 Episode 25 cover iamge

Stocks, Bonds to Rally in Q4: David Hunter (Szn 5, Episode 25)

Published October 16, 2023

A short actionable highlights reel from this podcast was released to premium subscribers last Thursday, Oct. 12 — the same day it was recorded. The full episode and transcript were made available to premium subscribers the following day. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast.

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, Fed, stocks, and bonds.

Not investment advice.

Content Highlights

  • Views on the bond market (1:31);
  • The Federal Reserve will likely pause again at its next meeting, on Nov. 1 (6:41);
  • Views on stocks (11:30);
  • Once consensus emerges that the Fed is ‘done’ it will remove a major wall of worry and headwind the magnitude of which few are anticipating… (16:14);
  • Targets for S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Industrials, 10-year yields… (21:21);
  • How the ‘bust’ scenario will play out (27:02),

To contact David Hunter and find out about subscribing to his newsletter, you need to send him a direct message on Twitter. His handle is @DaveHContrarian. The host will not forward your messages.

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