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Tag: interest rates

The Specter of Stagflation Still Looms (Szn 6, Epsd 8)

Published May 13, 2024

With Ayesha Tariq, Macro Visor

Ayesha Tariq, founder of Macro Visor, rejoins the podcast to discuss her views on the economy, markets, and where investors should look for opportunities.

  • The macro set-up and why people are talking about stagflation (1:56);
  • The K-shaped economy and the damage being done (3:31);
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell claims there’s no stag and no flation. Is he wrong? (It wouldn’t be the first time) (8:50);
  • Faced with this backdrop, what does one do as an investor? (13:03);
  • China: There are still reasons to worry, even though the bleeding from the property market has abated a bit… (15:58);
  • India: long term growth story. Also copper, oil, and Japan (17:11);
  • The guest’s favorite areas for opportunity right now: UK and India (21:07);
  • A long-term concern is the fiscal situation in the US (22:00).

For more about the guest, visit her firm’s website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X. 

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The Trend is Your Friend. Right Now It’s Positive (Szn 6, Epsd 6)Podcast episode cover art feat Enrique Abeyta

The Trend is Your Friend. Right Now It’s Positive (Szn 6, Epsd 6)

Published April 5, 2024

With Enrique Abeyta, HX Research

Enrique Abeyta of HX Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his (constructive) views on the stock market, why commercial real estate concerns are overdone, and to provide one stock pick — and it’s not Nvidia, though he does discuss that at some length.

Some mature language is used at a few points. Sensitive listeners should be advised. 

The guest’s microphone setup is significantly better than the host’s so don’t get discouraged by the host sounding like he’s hiding in a cave at the open.

Content Highlights

  • Trends are underrated. Many investors don’t respect them or understand what they mean. The current trend is clearly long-term bullish for stocks (2:21);
  • However over the short term there could (probably will) be a pull back — as appears to be happening the week after recording (5:24);
  • On the whole, however, the outlook is very constructive. So constructive that the guest has only seen this clarity 10 times or less in his 30-year career (12:30);
  • When it comes to the Federal Reserve, there is a strong possibility interest rate policy stays roughly the same… (15:36);
  • Contrarian take: there’s no need to worry about commercial real estate: (19:00);
  • Regional banks presented an opportunity a year ago. New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is not an opportunity now (23:54);
  • Views on Nvidia (NVDA): not super constructive (28:20);
  • One long term idea: Independent power producer Talen Energy (TLNE), owner of a nuclear power plant. The company recently emerged from bankruptcy (34:51).

More on the Guest

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Lessons From Financial History (Szn 6, Epsd 4)Cover art, Szn 6, Episode 4 feat Mark Higgins

Lessons From Financial History (Szn 6, Epsd 4)

Published March 13, 2024

With Mark Higgins, Author, ‘Investing in Financial History’

Mark Higgins, author of the new book, Investing in Financial History, joins the podcast to discuss lessons from the past and what period is the most appropriate point of comparison to today’s market environment.

Content Highlights

  • What period from the past compares closest to the one we’re living through now? It’s a combination of several… (1:56);
  • The last time the US — and Federal Reserve — battled serious inflation was from 1965 to the early 1980s. Here there are several parallels to today’s age… (4:36);
  • The Fed appeared to turn more accommodative in December and January. This may have been a mistake (9:04);
  • Financial history is very much a history of panics, but there has not been a major bank run in the US since the Great Depression (11:51);
  • Portfolios have become increasingly complex without proper consideration of cost — and risks (15:40);
  • Decentralized currencies aren’t new and in fact once characterized the US dollar — and for the same reason (fear of central banks and fiat currency, etc). That didn’t end well… (18:06);
  • Background on the guest and how he came to write the book (22:05);
  • Bubbles and their challenges. Some commonalities include the media as trailing indicator… (27:17);
  • The 180 degree turn on public debt by US public officials (29:36);
  • The US dollar will likely be replaced as global reserve currency one day (33:25).

More About the Guest

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