The following is an amended form of the Daily Contrarian briefing from June 17. This briefing and accompanying podcast are released to premium subscribers each market day morning by 0700. To subscribe, visit our Substack.
Talk of recession has emerged in force this week after the Fed raised rates by 0.75% and stocks sold off. Google Trends shows keyword searches for ‘recession’ at their highest level since the onset of the pandemic.
Ayesha Tariq of Keystone Consulting joins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss her bearish views on the global economy and on stock markets, what investment options she prefers right now, and why work-from-home will not persist (or at least not at current levels).
Content Highlights
The idea of a ‘Fed pivot’ away from higher rates is baseless. The Fed has no choice but to raise rates (3:01);
What about inflation having peaked? Won’t that remove some pressure from the Fed? (8:35);
Unemployment is due to rise, with companies soon having no choice but to lay off workers — but this won’t stop the Fed either (11:28);
Markets had a good week. Did we have the bottom already? (13:57);
What about commodities? A potential bright spot due to structural issues? (15:32);
Background on the guest (21:06);
What are some of the best options for investors in light of all this? (23:19);
Real estate investment trusts are one good option, especially commercial real estate. Work-from-home was a phase that will be scaled back soon (26:25);
Tobias Carlisle of Acquirers Funds rejoins the podcast to discuss the stock market’s latest dramatic reversal, this time over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and why investors may be a bit too bullish at present…
Content Highlights
How to take the huge reversal last week with Russia-Ukraine? (3:11)
Every war starts with “the boys will be home by Christmas,” but most tend to drag on longer than anticipated. Sometimes a lot longer… (5:13);
Growth stocks have been in correction territory for some time. Are they in a bear market? Probably… (8:52);
The interest rate cycle has not started tightening but inflation has the Fed caught between a rock and a hard place (15:53);
Energy and energy stocks are still cheap. Then there are defense contractors. Lockheed Martin (LMT) has benefited from Russia-Ukraine and Carlisle is a holder… (21:25);
Facebook aka Meta (FB) is also cheap (23:20);
Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs: Dead as Disco (30:12);
The aim of investing is to survive the bad times and they are “probably here” (37:18).
