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Tag: interest rates

Inflation Will Persist Above the Fed’s Comfort Level (Szn 5, Episode 15)

Published June 7, 2023

With Naomi Fink, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink, founder and CEO at Europacifica Consulting in Los Angeles, joins the podcast to discuss her view that inflation will prove more elevated and persistent than market participants are anticipating — and how and where this impact will be felt.

Content Highlights

  • Inflation caught investors by surprise and investors could be forgiven for thinking inflation will drop again. But inflation will more likely normalize around a higher rate (3:15);
  • There are multiple reasons for this: reversal of globalization, limits to technological advancements, supply shocks, geopolitical unrest, and labor supply shortages, to name a few (4:09);
  • Where does this leave Fed policy? (6:03);
  • Retailers have been reporting a consumer pullback on big ticket purchases: business cycle or inflation? (13:52);
  • Companies will need to innovate to deal with more persistent inflation and a skills shortage. Those that don’t will be left behind (16:34);
  • AI is not a cure-all and may in fact be mostly hype (18:23);
  • Background on the guest (24:53);
  • Japan and Japan stocks (28:36);
  • Social security cost of living adjustments are not keeping up with inflation. The impact (33:59);
  • What options do retirees have to maintain their purchasing power on fixed income? (38:17);
  • Financial literacy is vital but may be a double-edged sword… (46:28).

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Mild Recession Brings Opportunities in Tech Stocks, Corporate Bonds: (Season 5, Episode 12)

Published May 11, 2023

Feat Elliot Kallen, Prosperity Financial Group

Elliot Kallen, founder of Prosperity Financial Group, joins the podcast to discuss his expectations for a coming recession, to start this summer, and why some of the best opportunities may be in technology stocks and corporate bonds.

Content Highlights

  • Tech stocks: the pullback is coming (3:31);
  • The market is starting to flatline. Look to midcap value stocks (6:04);
  • The Fed will likely raise rates one more time and then reverse. Time to buy bonds — corporates (8:47);
  • Consumers have already started to pull back, judging by some primary evidence the guest gathers… (12:02);
  • Why the recession will be mild, despite the red flags (17:38);
  • Background on the guest (24:00);
  • Active management has its place (30:24);
  • Thoughts on the next generation growth industries (36:53).

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Risk/Reward Still Skewed Toward Risk: Mike Singleton, Invictus Research (Szn 5, Ep 9)

Published April 11, 2023

This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, April 6, with an actionable highlights clip previewing the following day’s non-farm payrolls released to premium subscribers that same day. The full podcast episode was then released to premium subscribers a day later. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast.

Mike Singleton of Invictus Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his pessimistic outlook for the economy, why he’s concerned about credit risk, and why the Federal Reserve should end up cutting rates before too long.

Content Highlights

  • The outlook for risk assets is still not constructive (2:40);
  • Fed rate hikes are very close to a peak, if not there already (4:43);
  • Economic conditions point to stubborn inflation (7:09);
  • Inflation may not need to return to the Fed’s 2% target for there to be rate cuts (11:00);
  • The outlook for commodities prices is not particularly constructive either (15:59);
  • What to make of the banks? (21:14);
  • One leading economic indicator that Invictus likes, which is overlooked (or ignored) by the market at large (22:30);
  • The backdrop is still positive for short-term bonds (24:28);
  • Leading indicators for the yield curve include bank lending standards, which right now suggest a steepening… (26:13).

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Not investment advice.

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