Economic Cycle Still Has Room to Run, Even With Tariffs (Szn 7, Epsd 5)

Podcast episode cover art featuring guest Scott Colbert

Economic Cycle Still Has Room to Run, Even With Tariffs (Szn 7, Epsd 5)

Published March 11, 2025

With Scott Colbert, Commerce Trust

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss why the economy can continue to expand even with the onset of Trump tariffs.

This podcast episode was recorded on March 6, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers exclusively the same day it was recorded. Information on premium membership is avaliable here.

Content Highlights

The “Trump tariff barrage” will lead to slower growth, lower economic activity, and higher inflation — in the short term (1:51);
Over the medium term however, tariffs should not trigger a recession, nor will they have a lasting impact on prices aka inflation (6:24);
Labor markets: Immigration has ground to a halt, but people are aging out of the workforce. Government layoffs notwithstanding, that should result in a wash (10:23);
Ultimately the economic cycle is half way through its growth stage, which should run for another four years. However this won’t be great for growth stocks like the ‘magnificent 7’… (15:14);
Fixed income is suddenly an attractive asset class and international stocks have tailwinds as well… (18:03);
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker is suddenly predicting a negative print for first-quarter GDP. There are logical reasons for this (24:23).

Pessimism’s Return, Trump 2.0 Opportunities, With Phil Pecsok, Anacapa Advisors (Szn, 7, Epsd 4)

Published March 4, 2025

Phil Pecsok of Anacapa Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss the return of pessimism to the market and the economic and market repercussions of Trump’s various policies.

This podcast episode was recorded in two segments, the second on Feb. 24 with the express purpose of discussing with the then-nascent sell-off and Nvidia (NVDA) earnings. More information is available here.

This podcast deviates from the usual format by including the guest’s first-hand account of the LA wildfires. This admittedly has only limited relation to investing, but was kept mostly intact for human interest reasons. Listeners can skip past these segments, identified below.

Walmart (WMT) earnings ushered in a fresh round of selling in stocks that has yet to reverse (1:05)
The concerns raised by Walmart earnings are legitimate, but stocks should still rise this year (5:02);
The guest, a resident of the Pacific Palisades, recounts his harrowing experience with the LA fires (11:25);
Economic repercussions of the fires (14:32);
Trump will ultimately be good for the economy and for markets. Fade any Trump-generated market panic (27:51);
Why you shouldn’t buy defense contractor stocks yet (37:18);
The outlook for inflation is not great. This will likely keep the Fed from cutting rates (41:52).

For more on the guest and his firm, visit the website AnacapaAdvisors.com.

The Looming Iceberg Ahead of the US Economy (Szn 7, Epsd 1)

Published January 28, 2025

Les Rubin, Main Street Economics

Les Rubin of Main Street Economics joins the podcast to discuss his chief concern facing not just markets and economies, but the world at large: US sovereign debt.

This podcast episode was recorded on Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2025 and released to premium subscribers the same day. Information on premium subscriptions, including the vast benefits, are available on our Substack.