Press "Enter" to skip to content

Tag: interest rates

Tariff Dips Create Buying Opportunities (Szn 7, Epsd 9)podcast episode cover art feat Petra Bakosova

Tariff Dips Create Buying Opportunities (Szn 7, Epsd 9)

Published May 13, 2025

With Petra Bakosova, Hull Tactical

Petra Bakosova of Hull Tactical joins the podcast to discuss her views on the Federal Reserve, labor markets, the impact of tariffs, and what this all means for financial markets.

This podcast episode was recorded on May 8, 2025. An ‘actionable highlights’ reel was published that day for premium subscribers, who also received the full podcast episode the day after recording. Sign up for premium membership packages on our Substack.

Content Highlights

  • The Fed last week expressed concerns about risks in the labor market. There is nothing in any of the data that bears this out yet. However, there are other ways that tariffs have had an effect (3:36);

  • Hull Tactical has been “close to 100% invested” and views this as a good time to be active allocating risk (6:14);

  • Background on the guest (10:28);

  • Philosophy behind Hull Tactical’s investment strategy (12:45);

  • The danger of ‘overfitting’: Data will confess to anything if you torture it long enough. How to guard against it (16:51);

  • Blackjack and how it inspired the strategy (21:31).

More on the Guest

Leave a Comment
Opportunities in High Yield, Private Credit and More (Szn 7, Epsd 7)Podcast episode cover art feat AJ Giannone

Opportunities in High Yield, Private Credit and More (Szn 7, Epsd 7)

Published March 31, 2025

With AJ Giannone, Alio Capital

AJ Giannone, the chief investment officer of Allio Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss why high yield and private credit present compelling opportunities for retail investors — despite the apparently advanced state of the economic cycle.

Not investment advice! Do your own research, make your own decisions.

Content Highlights

  • High yield debt: this does not appear to be a good time to invest in this asset class, especially through listed funds. Or is it? (1:18);

  • The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is one way convenient and low-cost way for retail investors to access this asset class (5:05);

  • Another iShares product, iShares BB Rated Corporate Bond ETF (HYBB) is a so-called ‘smart beta’ approach… (7:43);

  • The guest is not particularly concerned about a recession, or at least not the performance of high yield should one come to pass. Even then, the default rate should not increase dramatically (9:51);

  • Private credit is another niche corner of the credit market that has recently been open to retail investors via ETFs VPC and PCMM, among others (12:39);

  • Background on the guest (22:52);

  • Some of the macro signals he watches and what they are telling us right now (28:01);

  • There is still upside in European equities (33:54);

  • What about the US market? (38:19)

More Information on the Guest

Leave a Comment
Economic Cycle Still Has Room to Run, Even With Tariffs (Szn 7, Epsd 5)Podcast episode cover art featuring guest Scott Colbert

Economic Cycle Still Has Room to Run, Even With Tariffs (Szn 7, Epsd 5)

Published March 11, 2025

With Scott Colbert, Commerce Trust

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss why the economy can continue to expand even with the onset of Trump tariffs.

Content Highlights

  • The “Trump tariff barrage” will lead to slower growth, lower economic activity, and higher inflation — in the short term (1:51);
  • Over the medium term however, tariffs should not trigger a recession, nor will they have a lasting impact on prices aka inflation (6:24);
  • Labor markets: Immigration has ground to a halt, but people are aging out of the workforce. Government layoffs notwithstanding, that should result in a wash (10:23);
  • Ultimately the economic cycle is half way through its growth stage, which should run for another four years. However this won’t be great for growth stocks like the ‘magnificent 7’… (15:14);
  • Fixed income is suddenly an attractive asset class and international stocks have tailwinds as well… (18:03);
  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker is suddenly predicting a negative print for first-quarter GDP. There are logical reasons for this (24:23).

More on the Guest

Leave a Comment