NVDA – The Contrarian Investor Podcast

Bonds Poised for More Upside. Tech Stocks Too: Chad Olivier

Bonds Poised for More Upside. Tech Stocks Too: Chad Olivier

Published August 6, 2024

Chad Olivier of Baton Rouge, La.-based The Olivier Group joins the podcast to discuss his view of markets and why he is bullish about bonds and technology stocks.

This podcast episode was recorded July 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day — without ads or announcements. More information on premium subscriptions is available here.

Content Highlights

The view of the bond market has changed with the Fed (1:18)
The Olivier Group started adding bond exposure through ETFs in the first quarter and expects to add to it… (3:18);
The 10-year yield should drop to the 3% range “by this time next year” (4:43);
Small caps have recovered lately but the guest is less bullish there (9:31);
Technology stocks are much better positioned than in previous cycles (10:56);
Municipal bonds may also present an opportunity… (15:41);
Background on the guest (20:05);
Oil markets could present another opportunity, especially large cap, dividend-paying companies (23:58);
The political outlook and its impact on markets (25:51).

For more information on the guest visit the website OlivierGroup.com.

The Search for ‘Undiscovered’ AI Chip Stocks

Published May 21, 2024

This blog post was originally published as part of today’s Daily Contrarian.

Recent market activity shows investors don’t want to wait for Nvidia (NVDA) earnings tomorrow to bid up AI chip stocks. Marvell Technology (MRVL) was one of the biggest winners yesterday. Smaller AI names like Soundhound AI (SOUN) also put in rallies, as did the usual suspects AMD (AMD), Micron (MU), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Broadcom (AVGO), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM).

Here’s an idea for an ETF: small AI hardware names. Limit it at, say $5 billion market cap companies. The focus on hardware would (presumably) allow for a margin of safety. It would also weed out names like the aforementioned Soundhound, C3.ai (AI), FARO Technologies (FARO), and others including companies that just plaster the term ‘AI’ all over their marketing materials to attract attention.

Unfortunately, this doesn’t leave much. The Contrarian did a preliminary search and found just a few such companies, almost all of them suppliers to the semiconductor industry. Of course, ‘undiscovered’ is a bit of a misnomer here. Investors have picked through any and every stock even remotely related to AI. Still, it’s fair to say these securities are certainly under-covered by Wall Street.

Names include ACM Research (ACMR), Camtek (CAMT), FormFactor (FORM), Ichor Holdings (ICHR), Kulicke and Soffa Industries (KLIC), Photronics (PLAB), Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT), and Veeco Instruments (VECO).

It’s likely the AI hype story is already priced in to these stocks (didn’t check). But it may be worth putting these names in an index to track them, to the extent that somebody hasn’t done it yet. If nothing else this could give us an idea of stocks to buy when (if) there is a pullback in AI chip names.

There are obviously private companies as well, including Anthropic (OpenAI rival), Graphcore, Cerebras, SambaNova, Groq.

The Contrarian does not hold any of these stocks.

Update June 4, 2024: ACM Research will be removed from this list as the company does most of its business in China.

The Trend is Your Friend. Right Now It’s Positive (Szn 6, Epsd 6)

Published April 5, 2024

With Enrique Abeyta, HX Research

Enrique Abeyta of HX Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his (constructive) views on the stock market, why commercial real estate concerns are overdone, and to provide one stock pick — and it’s not Nvidia, though he does discuss that at some length.

Some mature language is used at a few points. Sensitive listeners should be advised.

The guest’s microphone setup is significantly better than the host’s so don’t get discouraged by the host sounding like he’s hiding in a cave at the open.

Content Highlights

Trends are underrated. Many investors don’t respect them or understand what they mean. The current trend is clearly long-term bullish for stocks (2:21);
However over the short term there could (probably will) be a pull back — as appears to be happening the week after recording (5:24);
On the whole, however, the outlook is very constructive. So constructive that the guest has only seen this clarity 10 times or less in his 30-year career (12:30);
When it comes to the Federal Reserve, there is a strong possibility interest rate policy stays roughly the same… (15:36);
Contrarian take: there’s no need to worry about commercial real estate: (19:00);
Regional banks presented an opportunity a year ago. New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is not an opportunity now (23:54);
Views on Nvidia (NVDA): not super constructive (28:20);
One long term idea: Independent power producer Talen Energy (TLNE), owner of a nuclear power plant. The company recently emerged from bankruptcy (34:51).